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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
Risk of COVID-19 death in adults who received booster COVID-19 vaccinations in England
The emergence of the COVID-19 vaccination has been critical in changing the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure protection remains high in vulnerable groups booster vaccinations in the UK have been targeted based on age and clinical vulnerabilities. We undertook a national retrospective cohort study using data from the 2021 Census linked to electronic health records. We fitted cause-specific Cox models to examine the association between health conditions and the risk of COVID-19 death and all-other-cause death for adults aged 50-100-years in England vaccinated with a booster in autumn 2022. Here we show, having learning disabilities or Down Syndrome (hazard ratio=5.07;95% confidence interval=3.69-6.98), pulmonary hypertension or fibrosis (2.88;2.43-3.40), motor neuron disease, multiple sclerosis, myasthenia or Huntington’s disease (2.94, 1.82-4.74), cancer of blood and bone marrow (3.11;2.72-3.56), Parkinson’s disease (2.74;2.34-3.20), lung or oral cancer (2.57;2.04 to 3.24), dementia (2.64;2.46 to 2.83) or liver cirrhosis (2.65;1.95 to 3.59) was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death. Individuals with cancer of the blood or bone marrow, chronic kidney disease, cystic fibrosis, pulmonary hypotension or fibrosis, or rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus had a significantly higher risk of COVID-19 death relative to other causes of death compared with individuals who did not have diagnoses. Policy makers should continue to priorities vulnerable groups for subsequent COVID-19 booster doses to minimise the risk of COVID-19 death.
The RETRIEVE Checklist for Studies Reporting the Elicitation of Stated Preferences for Child Health-Related Quality of Life
Background: Recent systematic reviews show varying methods for eliciting, modelling, and reporting preference-based values for child health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) outcomes, thus producing value sets with different characteristics. Reporting in many of the reviewed studies was found to be incomplete and inconsistent, making them difficult to assess. Checklists can help to improve standards of reporting; however, existing checklists do not address methodological issues for valuing child HRQoL. Existing checklists also focus on reporting methods and processes used in developing HRQoL values, with less focus on reporting of the values’ key characteristics and properties. We aimed to develop a checklist for studies generating values for child HRQoL, including for disease-specific states and value sets for generic child HRQoL instruments. Development: A conceptual model provided a structure for grouping items into five modules. Potential items were sourced from an adult HRQoL checklist review, with additional items specific to children developed using recent reviews. Checklist items were reduced by eliminating duplication and overlap, then refined for relevance and clarity via an iterative process. Long and short checklist versions were produced for different user needs. The resulting long RETRIEVE contains 83 items, with modules for reporting methods (A–D) and characteristics of values (E), for researchers planning and reporting child health valuation studies. The short RETRIEVE contains 14 items for decision makers or researchers choosing value sets. Conclusion: Applying the RETRIEVE checklists to relevant studies suggests feasibility. RETRIEVE has the potential to improve completeness in the reporting of preference-based values for child HRQOL outcomes and to improve assessment of preference-based value sets.
Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for 90-day venous thromboembolism risk following total hip and total knee arthroplasty: a multinational study
Background: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is 1.0% to 1.5%, despite uniform thromboprophylaxis. Objectives: To develop and validate a prediction model for 90-day VTE risk. Methods: A multinational cohort study was performed. For model development, records were used from the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics UK routine data. For external validation, data were used from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registry, the National Patient Registry, and the National Prescription Registry. Binary multivariable logistic regression techniques were used for development. Results: In the UK data set, 64 032 THA/TKA procedures were performed and 1.4% developed VTE. The prediction model consisted of age, body mass index, sex, cystitis within 1 year before surgery, history of phlebitis, history of VTE, presence of varicose veins, presence of asthma, history of transient ischemic attack, history of myocardial infarction, presence of hypertension and THA or TKA. The area under the curve of the model was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67). Furthermore, 36 169 procedures were performed in the Danish cohort, of whom 1.0% developed VTE. Here, the area under the curve was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.67). The calibration slope was 0.92 in the validation study and 1.00 in the development study. Conclusion: This clinical prediction model for 90-day VTE risk following THA and TKA performed well in both development and validation data. This model can be used to estimate an individual's risk for VTE following THA/TKA.
Young people, mental health and COVID-19 infection: the canaries we put in the coal mine.
ObjectivesThe number of people testing positive for Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) in the UK, particularly among young adults, is increasing. We report here on the mental health of young adults and related psychological and behavioural responses to the pandemic and consider the role of these factors in fuelling the increase in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in this group.MethodsAn online survey was completed during the first six weeks of the first UK-wide lockdown by 3097 respondents, including data for 364 respondents aged 18-24 years. The survey included measures of mental health and indices capturing related psychological and behavioural responses to the pandemic.ResultsThe mental health of 18- to 24-years-olds in the first 6 weeks of lockdown was significantly poorer than that of older respondents and previously published norms: with 84% reporting symptoms of depression and 72% reporting symptoms of anxiety. Young adults also reported significantly greater loneliness and reduced positive mood, both of which were also associated with greater mental health difficulties.ConclusionsWe contend that the combination of mental health, social and economic considerations may have contributed to the rise of COVID-19 infections in young adults, and ascribing blame to this group will not aid our efforts to regain control of the disease.
Mental health in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: cross-sectional analyses from a community cohort study.
ObjectivesPrevious pandemics have resulted in significant consequences for mental health. Here, we report the mental health sequelae of the COVID-19 pandemic in a UK cohort and examine modifiable and non-modifiable explanatory factors associated with mental health outcomes. We focus on the first wave of data collection, which examined short-term consequences for mental health, as reported during the first 4-6 weeks of social distancing measures being introduced.DesignCross-sectional online survey.SettingCommunity cohort study.ParticipantsN=3097 adults aged ≥18 years were recruited through a mainstream and social media campaign between 3 April 2020 and 30 April 2020. The cohort was predominantly female (n=2618); mean age 44 years; 10% (n=296) from minority ethnic groups; 50% (n=1559) described themselves as key workers and 20% (n=649) identified as having clinical risk factors putting them at increased risk of COVID-19.Main outcome measuresDepression, anxiety and stress scores.ResultsMean scores for depression ([Formula: see text] =7.69, SD=6.0), stress ([Formula: see text] =6.48, SD=3.3) and anxiety ([Formula: see text] = 6.48, SD=3.3) significantly exceeded population norms (all p<0.0001). Analysis of non-modifiable factors hypothesised to be associated with mental health outcomes indicated that being younger, female and in a recognised COVID-19 risk group were associated with increased stress, anxiety and depression, with the final multivariable models accounting for 7%-14% of variance. When adding modifiable factors, significant independent effects emerged for positive mood, perceived loneliness and worry about getting COVID-19 for all outcomes, with the final multivariable models accounting for 54%-57% of total variance.ConclusionsIncreased psychological morbidity was evident in this UK sample and found to be more common in younger people, women and in individuals who identified as being in recognised COVID-19 risk groups. Public health and mental health interventions able to ameliorate perceptions of risk of COVID-19, worry about COVID-19 loneliness and boost positive mood may be effective.
Influence of setting-dependent contacts and protective behaviours on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst members of a UK university.
We survey 62 users of a university asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing service on details of their activities, protective behaviours and contacts in the 7 days prior to receiving a positive or negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result in the period October 2020-March 2021. The resulting data set is novel in capturing very detailed social contact history linked to asymptomatic disease status during a period of significant restriction on social activities. We use this data to explore 3 questions: (i) Did participation in university activities enhance infection risk? (ii) How do contact definitions rank in their ability to explain test outcome during periods of social restrictions? (iii) Do patterns in the protective behaviours help explain discrepancies between the explanatory performance of different contact measures? We classify activities into settings and use Bayesian logistic regression to model test outcome, computing posterior model probabilities to compare the performance of models adopting different contact definitions. Associations between protective behaviours, participant characteristics and setting are explored at the level of individual activities using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We find that participation in air travel or non-university work activities was associated with a positive asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, in contrast to participation in research and teaching settings. Intriguingly, logistic regression models with binary measures of contact in a setting performed better than more traditional contact numbers or person contact hours (PCH). The MCA indicates that patterns of protective behaviours vary between setting, in a manner which may help explain the preference for any participation as a contact measure. We conclude that linked PCR testing and social contact data can in principle be used to test the utility of contact definitions, and the investigation of contact definitions in larger linked studies is warranted to ensure contact data can capture environmental and social factors influencing transmission risk.