Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

New research suggests NHS Scotland must increase its non-emergency hospital treatment capacity by 20% over the next three years to address the backlog caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

nurse station in accident and emergency

New research by Professor Sir Aziz Sheikh, now Head of the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, and colleagues from the Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, and the University of Strathclyde has found that NHS Scotland must increase its non-emergency hospital treatment capacity by 20% over the next three years to address the backlog caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The study, published in The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, reveals that waiting lists in Scotland had grown to over 667,000 referrals by the end of 2023 - affecting approximately one in ten people in Scotland.

The analysis of Scotland's healthcare system, spanning from 2013 to 2023, shows that the pandemic intensified pre-existing challenges. While waiting lists had already grown by 35% in the six years before Covid-19, they surged by 73% in the four years following the pandemic's onset.

Particularly concerning is the dramatic rise in those waiting more than a year for treatment, which increased from 3,000 in December 2019 to 78,000 by December 2023.

"The NHS's struggle to meet demand didn't start with the pandemic – it began years earlier," explains Professor Sheikh. "The pandemic accelerated the decline of an already strained system and recovery efforts have so far fallen short."

The study found that most regions in Scotland are now missing the government's 12-week treatment target for both inpatient and outpatient care. Several specialties are particularly affected, including ENT, General Surgery, Gynaecology, Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, and Urology, where the majority of patients are waiting beyond the target timeframe.

To address these challenges, the researchers calculate that NHS Scotland needs to treat an additional 32,300 cases annually over the next three years. However, they emphasize that increasing capacity alone isn't enough - success will require broader system-wide strategies, including better demand management and improved efficiency.

The research was funded by Health Data Research UK and conducted in collaboration with the Universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde.

 

Contact our communications team

Opinions expressed are those of the authors and not of Oxford University. Readers' comments will be moderated - see our guidelines for further information.