Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February
Grint DJ., Wing K., Williamson E., McDonald HI., Bhaskaran K., Evans D., Evans SJ., Walker AJ., Hickman G., Nightingale E., Schultze A., Rentsch CT., Bates C., Cockburn J., Curtis HJ., Morton CE., Bacon S., Davy S., Wong AY., Mehrkar A., Tomlinson L., Douglas IJ., Mathur R., Blomquist P., MacKenna B., Ingelsby P., Croker R., Parry J., Hester F., Harper S., DeVito NJ., Hulme W., Tazare J., Goldacre B., Smeeth L., Eggo RM.
The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.