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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
Impact of changes to national guidelines on hypertension-related workload: an interrupted time series analysis in English primary care.
BACKGROUND: In 2011, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommended the routine use of out-of-office blood pressure (BP) monitoring for the diagnosis of hypertension. These changes were predicted to reduce unnecessary treatment costs and workload associated with misdiagnosis. AIM: To assess the impact of guideline change on rates of hypertension-related consultation in general practice. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective open cohort study in adults registered with English general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2017. METHOD: The primary outcome was the rate of face-to-face, telephone, and home visit consultations related to hypertension with a GP or nurse. Age- and sex-standardised rates were analysed using interrupted time-series analysis. RESULTS: In 3 937 191 adults (median follow-up 4.2 years) there were 12 253 836 hypertension-related consultations. The rate of hypertension-related consultation was 71.0 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 67.8 to 74.2) in April 2006, which remained flat before 2011. The introduction of the NICE hypertension guideline in 2011 was associated with a change in yearly trend (change in trend -3.60 per 100 person-years, 95% CI = -5.12 to -2.09). The rate of consultation subsequently decreased to 59.2 per 100 person-years (95% CI = 56.5 to 61.8) in March 2017. These changes occurred around the time of diagnosis, and persisted when accounting for wider trends in all consultations. CONCLUSION: Hypertension-related workload has declined in the last decade, in association with guideline changes. This is due to changes in workload at the time of diagnosis, rather than reductions in misdiagnosis.
The basic income for care leavers in Wales pilot evaluation: Protocol of a quasi-experimental evaluation.
BACKGROUND: This study will evaluate the Basic Income for Care Leavers in Wales pilot (BIP), which is the most generous basic income scheme in the world. A cohort of care-experienced young people who become aged 18 during a 12-month enrolment period (July 2022-June 2023) are receiving £1,600 (before tax) per month for two years, and the Welsh Government intends this to have a range of benefits. This evaluation will examine the impact of BIP, the implementation of the pilot and how it is experienced, and its value for money. METHODS: The study is a theory-based quasi-experimental evaluation, and the design and methods are informed by ongoing co-production with care-experienced young people. We will estimate the impact of BIP on participants using self-reported survey data and routinely collected administrative data. This will include outcomes across a range of domains, including psychological wellbeing, physical and mental health, financial impact, education, training and volunteering. Comparisons between temporal (Welsh) and geographical (English, using administrative data) controls will be done using coarsened exact matching and difference in differences analysis. The process evaluation will examine how BIP is implemented and experienced, primarily through monitoring data (quantitative) and interview, observational, and focus group data (qualitative). The economic evaluation will take a public sector and a societal perspective to identify, measure and value the costs and outcomes of BIP, and to synthesise the evidence to inform a social cost-benefit analysis at 24 months post-intervention. DISCUSSION: BIP is unusual in that it targets a wide range of outcomes and is available to an entire national cohort of participants. The evaluation also has several practical constraints. Therefore, the study will use a range of methods and triangulate between different analyses to assess how successful it is. Findings will inform policy in relation to care leavers, social security and basic income studies worldwide.
Efficiencies of recovery and extraction of trace DNA from non-porous surfaces
DNA recovery and extraction efficiencies are key considerations for trace DNA interpretation in casework, but prior studies have tended to focus on assessing these for body fluids rather than trace DNA. This study therefore examined the recovery and extraction of trace DNA using different collection methods from a range of non-porous surfaces relevant to crimes including homicides, terror attacks, and wildlife poaching. Direct extraction of DNA from solutions of a known concentration revealed absolute extraction efficiencies of ∼82%. When DNA was extracted from swabs seeded with the DNA solution, a similarly high efficiency of ∼85% was achieved from nylon-flocked swabs, with a lower efficiency of ∼55% from cotton swabs. However, when DNA was recovered from non-porous surfaces with swabs, ∼55% of DNA was still recovered from plastic knife handles, but lower efficiencies were achieved from the other substrates, particularly metal cable. Varied and poor recovery was observed using mini-tapes and requires further investigation. These results demonstrate that >50% recovery efficiency of trace DNA is achievable with both swab types, although recovery rates may be affected by surface type and/or practitioner experience.
Embracing uncertainty within medical education
This chapter draws upon empirical work in a UK medical school exploring howundergraduate medical students develop their professional identity within conditions ofuncertainty. The chapter first outlines seminal empirical explorations of uncertaintywithin existing medical education literature and then describes the research study, its useof narrative methodology and key findings. The chapter finally reflects upon how thisresearch might be used by the reader to inform and shape future medical educationendeavours, drawing upon useful educational theoretical frameworks. In particular, thischapter interrogates medical students' experiences of uncertainty within decision-makingduring 4th year undergraduate placements in general practice and invites the reader toconsider the competing discourses within medical education and struggles of identitywhich students experience within their training. The analysis uses a social constructivistunderstanding of identity as an interactional relationship between self and environment(Bourdieu, 1993). Learning, then, 'to be professional', becomes a negotiation ofcompromise, dominance and suppression, as students seek to perform a coherent selfwhich fits with their desire to be a legitimate member of the medical profession. © 2013 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.
Pivot to online learning for adapting or continuing workplace-based clinical learning in medical education following the COVID-19 pandemic: A BEME systematic review: BEME Guide No. 70
Background: The novel coronavirus disease was declared a pandemic in March 2020, which necessitated adaptations to medical education. This systematic review synthesises published reports of medical educational developments and innovations that pivot to online learning from workplace-based clinical learning in response to the pandemic. The objectives were to synthesise what adaptations/innovation were implemented (description), their impact (justification), and ‘how’ and ‘why’ these were selected (explanation and rationale). Methods: The authors systematically searched four online databases up to December 21, 2020. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full-texts, performed data extraction, and assessed the risk of bias. Our findings are reported in alignment with the STORIES (STructured apprOach to the Reporting in healthcare education of Evidence Synthesis) statement and BEME guidance. Results: Fifty-five articles were included. Most were from North America (n = 40), and nearly 70% focused on undergraduate medical education (UGME). Key developments were rapid shifts from workplace-based learning to virtual spaces, including online electives, telesimulation, telehealth, radiology, and pathology image repositories, live-streaming or pre-recorded videos of surgical procedures, stepping up of medical students to support clinical services, remote adaptations for clinical visits, multidisciplinary team meetings and ward rounds. Challenges included lack of personal interactions, lack of standardised telemedicine curricula and need for faculty time, technical resources, and devices. Assessment of risk of bias revealed poor reporting of underpinning theory, resources, setting, educational methods, and content. Conclusions: This review highlights the response of medical educators in deploying adaptations and innovations. Whilst few are new, the complexity, concomitant use of multiple methods and the specific pragmatic choices of educators offers useful insight to clinical teachers who wish to deploy such methods within their own practice. Future works that offer more specific details to allow replication and understanding of conceptual underpinnings are likely to justify an update to this review.
What is the probability that higher versus lower quality of evidence represents true effects estimates?
Rationale, Aims, and Objectives: The previous studies demonstrated that the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system, a leading method for evaluating the certainty (quality) of scientific evidence (CoE), cannot reliably differentiate between various levels of CoE when the objective is to accurately assess the magnitude of the treatment effect. An estimated effect size is a function of multiple factors, including the true underlying treatment effect, biases, and other nonlinear factors that affect the estimate in different directions. We postulate that non-weighted, simple linear tallying can provide more accurate estimates of the probability of a true estimate of treatment effects as a function of CoE. Methods: We reasoned that stable treatment effect estimates over time indicate truthfulness. We compared odds ratios (ORs) from meta-analyses (MAs) before and after updates, hypothesising that a ratio of odds ratios (ROR) equal to 1 will be more commonly observed in higher versus lower CoE. We used a subset of a previously analysed data set consisting of 82 Cochrane pairs of MAs in which CoE has not changed with the updated MA. If the linear model is valid, we would expect a decrease in the number of ROR = 1 cases as we move from high to moderate, low, and very low CoE. Results: We found a linear relationship between the probability of a potentially ‘true’ estimate of treatment effects as a function of CoE (assuming a 10% ROR error margin) (R2 = 1; p = 0.001). The probability of potentially ‘true’ estimates decreases by 21% (95% CI: 18%–24%) for each drop in the rating of CoE. A linear relationship with a 5% ROR error margin was less clear, likely due to a smaller sample size. Still, higher CoE showed a significantly greater probability of ‘true’ effects (53%) compared to non-high (i.e., moderate, low, or very low) CoE (25%); p = 0.032. Conclusion: This study confirmed linear relationship between CoE and the probability of potentially ‘true’ estimates. We found that the probability of potentially “true” estimates decreases by about 20% for each drop in CoE (from about 80% for high to 55% for moderate to 35% to low and 15% to very low CoE).
A realist review of the causes of, and current interventions to address 'missingness' in health care.
BackgroundThis protocol describes a realist review exploring the problem of "missingness" in healthcare, defined as the repeated tendency not to take up offers of care that has a negative impact on the person and their life chances. More specifically, the review looks at the phenomenon of patients missing multiple appointments in primary care in the UK - at the causal factors that influence how patients come to be "missing" in this way, and what interventions might support uptake and "presence" in healthcare. Background research informing this project suggests that a high rate of missed appointments predicted high premature death rates, and patients were more likely to have multiple long-term health conditions and experience significant socioeconomic disadvantage. Most research in this field focuses on population- or service-level characteristics of patients who miss appointments, often making no distinction between causes of single missed appointments and of multiple missed appointments. There have therefore been no interventions for 'missingness', accounting for the complex life circumstances or common mechanisms that cause people to repeatedly miss appointments.MethodsWe use a realist review approach to explore what causes missingness - and what might prevent or address it - for whom, and in what circumstances. The review uses an iterative approach of database searching, citation-tracking and sourcing grey literature, with selected articles providing insight into the causal dynamics underpinning missed appointments and the interventions designed to address them.DiscussionThe findings of this review will be combined with the findings of a qualitative empirical study and the contributions of a Stakeholder Advisory Group (STAG) to inform the development of a programme theory that seeks to explain how missingness occurs, whom it affects and under what circumstances. This will be used to develop a complex intervention to address multiple missed appointments in primary care.Prospero registrationCRD42022346006.
How, why and when are delayed (back-up) antibiotic prescriptions used in primary care? A realist review integrating concepts of uncertainty in healthcare
Background: Antimicrobial resistance is a global patient safety priority and inappropriate antimicrobial use is a key contributing factor. Evidence have shown that delayed (back-up) antibiotic prescriptions (DP) are an effective and safe strategy for reducing unnecessary antibiotic consumption but its use is controversial. Methods: We conducted a realist review to ask why, how, and in what contexts general practitioners (GPs) use DP. We searched five electronic databases for relevant articles and included DP-related data from interviews with healthcare professionals in a related study. Data were analysed using a realist theory-driven approach – theorising which context(s) influenced (mechanisms) resultant outcome(s) (context-mechanism-outcome-configurations: CMOCs). Results: Data were included from 76 articles and 41 interviews to develop a program theory comprising nine key and 56 related CMOCs. These explain the reasons for GPs’ tolerance of risk to different uncertainties and how these may interact with GPs’ work environment, self-efficacy and perceived patient concordance to make using DP as a safety-net or social tool more or less likely, at a given time-point. For example, when a GP uses clinical scores or diagnostic tests: a clearly high or low score/test result may mitigate scientific uncertainty and lead to an immediate or no antibiotic decision; an intermediary result may provoke hermeneutic (interpretation-related) uncertainty and lead to DP becoming preferred and used as a safety net. Our program theory explains how DP can be used to mitigate some uncertainties but also provoke or exacerbate others. Conclusion: This review explains how, why and in what contexts GPs are more or less likely to use DP, as well as various uncertainties GPs face which DP may mitigate or provoke. We recommend that efforts to plan and implement interventions to optimise antibiotic prescribing in primary care consider these uncertainties and the contexts when DP may be (dis)preferred over other interventions to reduce antibiotic prescribing. We also recommend the following and have included example activities for: (i) reducing demand for immediate antibiotics; (ii) framing DP as an ‘active’ prescribing option; (iii) documenting the decision-making process around DP; and (iv) facilitating social and system support.