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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
A systematic review of whole disease models for informing healthcare resource allocation decisions.
BACKGROUND: Whole disease models (WDM) are large-scale, system-level models which can evaluate multiple decision questions across an entire care pathway. Whilst this type of model can offer several advantages as a platform for undertaking economic analyses, the availability and quality of existing WDMs is unknown. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aimed to identify existing WDMs to explore which disease areas they cover, to critically assess the quality of these models and provide recommendations for future research. METHODS: An electronic search was performed on multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Technology Assessment database) on 23rd July 2023. Two independent reviewers selected studies for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) appraisal checklist for economic evaluations. Model characteristics were descriptively summarised. RESULTS: Forty-four WDMs were identified, of which thirty-two were developed after 2010. The main disease areas covered by existing WDMs are heart disease, cancer, acquired immune deficiency syndrome and metabolic disease. The quality of included WDMs is generally low. Common limitations included failure to consider the harms and costs of adverse events (AEs) of interventions, lack of probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and poor reporting. CONCLUSIONS: There has been an increase in the number of WDMs since 2010. However, their quality is generally low which means they may require significant modification before they could be re-used, such as modelling AEs of interventions and incorporation of PSA. Sufficient details of the WDMs need to be reported to allow future reuse/adaptation.
A Scoping Review of Item-Level Missing Data in Within-Trial Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
OBJECTIVES: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) alongside randomized controlled trials often relies on self-reported multi-item questionnaires that are invariably prone to missing item-level data. The purpose of this study is to review how missing multi-item questionnaire data are handled in trial-based CEAs. METHODS: We searched the National Institute for Health Research journals to identify within-trial CEAs published between January 2016 and April 2021 using multi-item instruments to collect costs and quality of life (QOL) data. Information on missing data handling and methods, with a focus on the level and type of imputation, was extracted. RESULTS: A total of 87 trial-based CEAs were included in the review. Complete case analysis or available case analysis and multiple imputation (MI) were the most popular methods, selected by similar numbers of studies, to handle missing costs and QOL in base-case analysis. Nevertheless, complete case analysis or available case analysis dominated sensitivity analysis. Once imputation was chosen, missing costs were widely imputed at item-level via MI, whereas missing QOL was usually imputed at the more aggregated time point level during the follow-up via MI. CONCLUSIONS: Missing costs and QOL tend to be imputed at different levels of missingness in current CEAs alongside randomized controlled trials. Given the limited information provided by included studies, the impact of applying different imputation methods at different levels of aggregation on CEA decision making remains unclear.
High value of rapid diagnostic tests to diagnose malaria within children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
BACKGROUND: Children aged under five years accounted for 61% of all malaria deaths worldwide in 2017, and quicker differential diagnosis of malaria fever is vital for them. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are strips to detect. PLASMODIUM: specific antigens promptly and are helpful in resource-limited areas. Thus, our aim is to assess the diagnostic accuracy of RDTs for malaria in children against the gold standard. METHODS: MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, and Sinomed databases were systematically searched on August 23, 2019. Studies that compared RDTs with microscopy or polymerase chain reaction in malaria diagnoses for children were eligible. Relevant data were extracted. The quality of studies was evaluated using the revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies instrument. Meta-analyses were carried out to calculate the pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: 51 articles were included. For diagnostic accuracy, the pooled estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of RDTs were 0.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.90, 0.95) and 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90, 0.96) respectively. Studies were highly heterogeneous, and subgroup analyses showed that the application of RDTs in high malaria transmission areas had higher sensitivity but lower specificity than those in low-to-moderate areas. CONCLUSIONS: RDTs have high accuracy for malaria diagnosis in children, and this characteristic is more prominent in high transmission areas. As they also have the advantages of rapid-detection, are easy-to-use, and can be cost-effective, it is recommended that the wider usage of RDTs should be promoted, especially in resource-limited areas. Further research is required to assess their performance in WHO South-East Asia and Americas Region.
Clipping versus coiling for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.
Neurosurgical clipping and endovascular coiling are both standard therapies to prevent rebleeding after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). However, controversy still exists about which is the optimal treatment. This meta-analysis aims to assess the effectiveness and safety of two treatments with high-quality evidence. Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Pubmed, Sinomed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang Data databases were systematically searched on August 5, 2021. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective cohort studies that evaluated the effectiveness and safety of clipping versus coiling in aSAH patients at discharge or within 1-year follow-up period were eligible. No restriction was set on the publication date. Meta-analyses were conducted to calculate the pooled estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of relative risk (RR). Eight RCTs and 20 prospective cohort studies were identified. Compared to coiling, clipping was associated with a lower rebleeding rate at discharge (RR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29--0.94) and a higher aneurysmal occlusion rate (RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.19-1.48) at 1-year follow-up. In contrast, coiling reduced the vasospasm rate at discharge (RR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.23-1.71) and 1-year poor outcome rate (RR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.16-1.39). Subgroup analyses presented that among patients with a poor neurological condition at admission, no statistically significant outcome difference existed between the two treatments. The overall prognosis was better among patients who received coiling, but this advantage was not significant among patients with a poor neurological condition at admission. Therefore, the selection of treatment modality for aSAH patients should be considered comprehensively.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria rapid diagnostic tests: a systematic review.
BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) can effectively manage malaria cases and reduce excess costs brought by misdiagnosis. However, few studies have evaluated the economic value of this technology. The purpose of this study is to systematically review the economic value of RDT in malaria diagnosis. MAIN TEXT: A detailed search strategy was developed to identify published economic evaluations that provide evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of malaria RDT. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Biosis Previews, Web of Science and Cochrane Library were searched from Jan 2007 to July 2018. Two researchers screened studies independently based on pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies. Then cost and effectiveness data were extracted and summarized in a narrative way. Fifteen economic evaluations of RDT compared to other diagnostic methods were identified. The overall quality of studies varied greatly but most of them were scored to be of high or moderate quality. Ten of the fifteen studies reported that RDT was likely to be a cost-effective approach compared to its comparisons, but the results could be influenced by the alternatives, study perspectives, malaria prevalence, and the types of RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Based on available evidence, RDT had the potential to be more cost-effective than either microscopy or presumptive diagnosis. Further research is also required to draw a more robust conclusion.
The Knowledge, Attitude, Practices, and Satisfaction of Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing among Chinese Pregnant Women under Different Payment Schemes: A Comparative Study.
Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for aneuploidy screening has been widely applied across China, and costs can affect Chinese pregnant women's choices. This study aims to assess the knowledge, attitude, practices (KAP) and satisfaction regarding NIPT among pregnant women in China, and to further explore the relationship between payment schemes and women's acceptability of and satisfaction with NIPT. A questionnaire survey was performed in Shenzhen and Zhengzhou, China, which separately applied "insurance coverage" and "out-of-pocket" payment scheme for NIPT. The major differences between the two cities were compared using chi-square test, Wilcoxon rank sum test, and propensity score matched analysis. Logistic regression models were applied to explore predictors for women's acceptability and satisfaction. Compared with Zhengzhou participants, a higher proportion of Shenzhen women had heard of NIPT (87.30% vs. 64.03%), were willing to receive NIPT (91.80% vs. 80.43%) and had taken NIPT (83.12% vs. 54.54%), while their satisfaction level was lower. Having NIPT-related knowledge was associated with higher acceptability, and receiving genetic counseling helped to improve satisfaction. Besides, women with higher annual household incomes were more likely to take and be satisfied with NIPT. In conclusion, more attention should be paid to health education, subsidies for NIPT, and genetic counseling.
Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria rapid diagnostic test in the elimination setting.
BACKGROUND: As more and more countries approaching the goal of malaria elimination, malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) was recomendated to be a diagnostic strategy to achieve and maintain the statute of malaria free, as it's less requirments on equipment and experitise than microscopic examination. But there are very few economic evaluations to confirm whether RDT was cost-effective in the setting of malaria elimination. This research aimed to offer evidence for helping decision making on malaria diagnosis strategy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to compare RDT with microscopy examination for malaria diagnosis, by using a decision tree model. There were three strategies of malaria diagnostic testing evaluated in the model, 1) microscopy, 2) RDT, 3) RDT followed by microscopy. The effect indicator was defined as the number of malaria cases treated appropriately. Based on the joint perspective of health sector and patient, costs data were collected from hospital information systems, key informant interviews, and patient surveys. Data collection was conducted in Jiangsu from September 2018 to January 2019. Epidemiological data were obtained from local malaria surveillance reports. A hypothetical cohort of 300 000 febrile patients were simulated to calculate the total cost and effect of each strategy. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the result. RESULTS: The results showed that RDT strategy was the most effective (245 cases) but also the most costly (United States Dollar [USD] 4.47 million) compared to using microscopy alone (238 cases, USD 3.63 million), and RDT followed by microscopy (221 cases, USD 2.75 million). There was no strategy dominated. One-way sensitivity analysis reflected that the result was sensitive to the change in labor cost and two-way sensitivity analysis indicated that the result was not sensitive to the proportion of falciparum malaria. The result of Monte Carlo simulation showed that RDT strategy had higher effects and higher cost than other strategies with a high probability. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to microscopy and RDT followed by microscopy, RDT strategy had higher effects and higher cost in the setting of malaria elimination.
Cost-effectiveness of screening tools for identifying depression in early pregnancy: a decision tree model.
BACKGROUND: Although the effectiveness of screening tools for detecting depression in pregnancy has been investigated, there is limited evidence on the cost-effectiveness. This is vital in providing full information to decision makers. This study aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of different screening tools to identify depression in early pregnancy compared to no screening. METHODS: A decision tree was developed to model the identification and treatment pathways of depression from the first antenatal appointment to 3-months postpartum using the Whooley questions, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and the Whooley questions followed by the EPDS, compared to no screening. The economic evaluation took an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Model parameters were taken from a combination of sources including a cross-sectional survey investigating the diagnostic accuracy of screening tools, and other published literature. Cost-effectiveness was assessed in terms of the incremental cost per quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were produced using a net-benefit approach based on Monte Carlo simulations of cost-outcome data. RESULTS: In a 4-way comparison, the Whooley, EPDS and Whooley followed by the EPDS each had a similar probability of being cost-effective at around 30% for willingness to pay values from £20,000-30,000 per QALY compared to around 20% for the no screen option. CONCLUSIONS: All three screening approaches tested had a higher probability of being cost-effective than the no-screen option. In the absence of a clear cost-effectiveness advantage for any one of the three screening options, the choice between the screening approaches could be made on other grounds, such as clinical burden of the screening options. Limitations include data availability and short time horizon, thus further research is needed. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: N/A.
Informal carer involvement in the transition of medicines-related care for patients moving from hospital to home: a realist review protocol
IntroductionTransition of care for a patient between hospital and home can cause disruption to normal routines, increasing the risk of medicines-related harm. The transition from hospital to home is more complex when a patient does not self-manage their medicines but relies on an informal or unpaid carer (eg, spouse, family member or friend) to provide support. Given the day-to-day medicines-related support provided by informal carers, there is a need to understand how informal carers manage the transition of care from hospital to home; what aspects of hospital discharge act as barriers and facilitators to their involvement and when, how and why these impact patients.Methods and analysisA realist review will be undertaken to develop a programme theory. The programme theory will theorise which medicines-related interventions are useful to carers, and how they are useful. It will outline what aspects of those interventions are the most useful and why, and how context influences engagement and medicine-related outcomes. The review will be reported in line with the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards guidelines. Data will be selected, screened and extracted based on defined inclusion and exclusion criteria and relevance to the developing programme theory with the involvement of at least two authors acting independently. Inclusion criteria relate to the relevance to hospital discharge where patients move back to their home, where a carer is involved and where interventions relate to medicines use. Searches will be conducted in PubMed, CINAHL (via EBSCOhost) and EMBASE databases (see supplementary materials for a draft search strategy).Patients and public, participation, involvement and engagement (PPIE) will be incorporated into all stages of the review through iterative engagement and discussion with patient, carers and representatives from carer organisations. The review will follow four steps: (1) development of the initial programme theory, (2) evidence search, (3) selection, extracting, and organising data and (4) synthesising evidence and drawing conclusions.Informal carer involvement in transitions of care is a complex and varied phenomena. The programme theory will be shaped by sustained PPIE reflecting the priorities and experiences of lived experience. The realist review be progressively focused so we can develop a better understanding of carer involvement in patient transitions when moving from hospital to home relating to medicines use.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required. The findings of the review will be disseminated via journal articles and through patient and public facing resources such as a visual patient–public-carer focused summary.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021262827.
Active case-finding policy development, implementation and scale-up in high-burden countries: A mixed-methods survey with National Tuberculosis Programme managers and document review.
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) stresses the importance of active case-finding (ACF) for early detection of tuberculosis (TB), especially in the 30 high-burden countries that account for almost 90% of cases globally. OBJECTIVE: To describe the attitudes of National TB Programme (NTP) managers related to ACF policy development, implementation and scale-up in the 30 high-burden countries, and to review national TB strategic plans. METHODS: This was a mixed-methods study with an embedded design: A cross-sectional survey with NTP managers yielded quantitative and qualitative data. A review of national TB strategic plans complemented the results. All data were analyzed in parallel and merged in the interpretation of the findings. RESULTS: 23 of the 30 NTP managers (77%) participated in the survey and 22 (73%) national TB strategic plans were reviewed. NTP managers considered managers in districts and regions key stakeholders for both ACF policy development and implementation. Different types of evidence were used to inform ACF policy, while there was a particular demand for local evidence. The NSPs reflected the NTP managers' unanimous agreement on the need for ACF scale-up, but not all included explicit aims and targets related to ACF. The NTP managers recognized that ACF may decrease health systems costs in the long-term, while acknowledging the risk for increased health system costs in the short-term. About 90% of the NTP managers declared that financial and human resources were currently lacking, while they also elaborated on strategies to overcome resource constraints. CONCLUSION: NTP managers stated that ACF should be scaled up but reported resource constraints. Strategies to increase resources exist but may not yet have been fully implemented, e.g. generating local evidence including from operational research for advocacy. Managers in districts and regions were identified as key stakeholders whose involvement could help improve ACF policy development, implementation and scale-up.
Capitalizing on facilitators and addressing barriers when implementing active tuberculosis case-finding in six districts of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: a qualitative study with key stakeholders.
BACKGROUND: Vietnam has a high burden of undetected tuberculosis (TB). The Vietnamese National TB Strategic Plan highlights active case-finding (ACF) as one strategy to find people with TB who are currently unreached by the existing government health services. The IMPACT TB (Implementing proven community-based active TB case-finding intervention) project was implemented across six districts of Ho Chi Minh City, 2017-2019. We aimed to explore the facilitators and barriers for ACF implementation during the IMPACT TB project to understand how and why the intervention achieved high yields. METHODS: This was an exploratory qualitative study based on 39 semi-structured key-informant interviews with TB patients who were diagnosed through ACF, employees and volunteers who implemented ACF, and leaders from district, national, or international institutions and organizations in Vietnam. Thematic analysis was applied, using an implementation science framework by Grol and Wensing. RESULTS: We generated three main themes: (1) the studied ACF model used in Vietnam provided a conducive social and organizational context for ACF implementation with areas for improvement, including communication and awareness-raising, preparation and logistics, data systems and processes, and incentives; (2) employees and volunteers capitalized on their strengths to facilitate ACF implementation, e.g., experience, skills, and communication; and (3) employees and volunteers were in a position to address patient-level barriers to ACF implementation, e.g., stigma, discrimination, and mistrust. These themes covered a variety of facilitators and barriers, which we divided into 17 categories. All categories were mentioned by employees and volunteers, except the category of having a network that facilitates ACF implementation, which was only mentioned by volunteers. This study also highlighted examples and ideas of how to address facilitators and barriers. CONCLUSIONS: IMPACT TB provided a favorable social and organizational context for ACF implementation. Individual employees and volunteers still determined the success of the project, as they had to be able to capitalize on their own strengths and address patient-level barriers. Volunteers especially used their networks to facilitate ACF. Knowledge of both facilitators and barriers, and how to address them can inform the planning and implementation ACF in Vietnam and similar contexts across low- and middle-income countries worldwide.
Early detection of colorectal cancer using symptoms and the ColonFlag: case-control and cohort studies
Background: Early detection of colorectal cancer confers substantial prognostic benefit. Most symptoms are non-specific and easily missed. The ColonFlag algorithm identifies risk of undiagnosed colorectal cancer using age, sex and changes in full blood count (FBC) indices. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the ColonFlag detects undiagnosed colorectal cancer prior to the recording of symptoms in general practice. Methods: : We conducted case-control and cohort studies by linking primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with colorectal cancer diagnoses from the National Cancer Registry. A ColonFlag score was derived for each FBC. We assessed the prevalence of symptoms at six-monthly intervals prior to index date (diagnosis date for cases, randomly selected date for controls). We then derived odds ratios (ORs) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the ColonFlag, and for symptoms using logistic regression at each interval (primary outcome 18-24 months). Results: : We included 1,893,641 patients, 10,875,556 FBCs and 8,918,037 ColonFlag scores. ColonFlag scores began to increase in cases compared with controls around 3-4 years before diagnosis. The AUROC for a diagnosis 18-24 months following the ColonFlag score was 0.736 (95% CI 0.715-0.759), falling to 0.536 (95% CI 0.523-0.548) with adjustment for age. ORs for individual symptoms became non-significant prior to 12 months before index date, except for abdominal pain (females OR=1.29, p<0.0001 at 12-18 months) and rectal bleeding (females OR=2.09, males OR=1.92, p<0.0001 at 18-24 months). Conclusions: : Symptoms appear relatively late in the colorectal cancer process and are limited for supporting early stage detection. The ColonFlag can discriminate usefully at 18-24 months before diagnosis, suggesting a role for this algorithm in primary care, although some of its discriminatory ability comes from the age variable.
Incidence of rheumatoid arthritis is not related to indicators of socioeconomic deprivation.
ObjectiveTo evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors in susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsA prospective population based register of inflammatory joint disease (NOAR) recruited 687 adults between 1990 and 1992, of whom 50% satisfied ARA criteria for RA at presentation. Using census data, social class specific incidence rates were calculated for both sexes. A correlation analysis was undertaken examining the association between incidence rates and 5 indicators of socioeconomic status.ResultsThere was no trend of increasing incidence with declining social class. None of the 5 indicators examined showed any evidence of association with incidence (rs range 0.0-0.3).ConclusionIn contrast to the data on factors influencing outcome in established RA, the socioeconomic status variables examined did not explain susceptibility patterns in the population studied.
Ethnicity and paediatric healthcare utilisation: Improving the quality of quantitative research : Claire Zhang
Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the stark health inequities affecting minority ethnic populations in Europe. However, research on ethnic inequities and healthcare utilisation in children has seldom entered the policy discourse. A scoping review was conducted in the UK, summarising and appraising the quantitative evidence on ethnic differences (unequal) and inequities (unequal and unfair or disproportionate to healthcare needs) in paediatric healthcare utilisation. Methods Embase, Medline and grey literature sources were searched for studies published 2001-2021. Studies that found differences and inequities were mapped by ethnic group and healthcare utilisation outcome. They were appraised using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal checklists. The distribution of studies was described across various methodological parameters. Results Of the 61 included studies, most found evidence of ethnic variations in healthcare utilisation (n = 54, 89%). Less than half attempted to distinguish between ethnic differences and inequities (n = 27, 44%). Studies were concentrated on primary and preventive care and hospitalisation, with minimal evidence on emergency and outpatient care. The quality of studies was often limited by a lack of theory underpinning analytical decisions, resulting in conflation of difference and inequity, and heterogeneity in ethnic classification. The majority of studies examined children's ethnicity but overlooked parent/caregiver ethnicity, and also didn't investigate patterns across age, year or location. Conclusions To improve the validity, generalisability and comparability of research on ethnicity and paediatric healthcare utilisation, findings from this scoping review were used to develop recommendations for future research. These lessons could be applied more broadly across the European context to improve evidence generation and evidence-based policy-making to reduce inequities in healthcare. Key messages • Quantitative studies of ethnicity and paediatric healthcare utilisation in the UK lack the use of sound theoretical frameworks, and often do not distinguish between ethnic differences and inequities. • The quality of future studies can be improved with greater attention to how ethnicity is classified and analysed, alongside specific considerations for examining healthcare utilisation in children.
Low prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in the urbanized Chinese of Hong Kong.
ObjectiveTo establish the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the urbanized Chinese of Hong Kong.Methods2000 adults in 2 housing blocks were screened using a structured interview. Those who screened positive had an examination, rheumatoid factor analysis and radiographs taken. Subjects were classified using the Rome, New York and 1987 ACR criteria (modified and unmodified) for RA.ResultsThe prevalence of RA, using the modified 1987 ACR criteria, was 0.35%. This is significantly lower than published data for European Caucasians (standardized morbidity ratio = 0.27; 95% CI 0.09-0.63).ConclusionRA is rare in urbanized Chinese.
Do new cases of rheumatoid arthritis cluster in time or in space?
ObjectivesTo examine for evidence of clustering in time, in space and in space/time in the occurrence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).SettingA population-based incidence register of RA in the East Anglian region of the UK: population size 413,000.SubjectsIn all 687 new cases of inflammatory joint disease registered between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 1994 were studied. Population data were obtained from postcode areas by age and sex.AnalysisTime trend analysis was conducted over the first 36 months and observed and expected distributions compared. Spatial clustering was based on comparison of observed distribution using map grid references to random expectation based on simulation. A similar procedure was undertaken for time/space clustering.ResultsThere was no evidence of a time trend. There was only modest evidence of spatial clustering with non-random distribution observed in one area but there was no evidence of time/space clustering.ConclusionAlthough a viral aetiology is the strongest candidate for RA, no evidence of a localized event in time was associated with disease development in this population.