Investigating prognostic classifications of preexisting multiple long-term conditions for health outcomes 1 year after COVID-19 hospitalization: A UK prospective observational study
Gardiner LE., Lozano-Rojas D., Smith N., Espley J., Stewart ID., Ntotsis K., Aul R., Bakerly ND., Beirne P., Bolton CE., Brown JS., Briggs A., Chalder T., Chalmers JD., Choudhury G., Davies MJ., De Soyza A., Docherty AB., Easom N., Echevarria C., Efstathiou CM., Elneima O., Fuld J., Geddes JR., Goemans AF., Greenhalf W., Greening NJ., Guillen-Guio B., Harris VC., Harrison EM., Hart N., Heaney LG., Heller S., Ho LP., Horsley A., Houchen-Wolloff L., Howard L., Hurst JR., Iqbal MM., Jacob J., Jenkins G., Jolley C., Jones M., Kerr S., Khunti K., Leavy OC., Lewis K., Lone NI., Lord JM., Man WDC., Marks M., McAuley HJC., McCann GP., Neubauer S., Openshaw PJM., Parekh D., Pfeffer P., Poinasamy K., Porter JC., Quint JK., Rahman NM., Raman B., Richardson M., Rowland-Jones SDM., Rowland MJ., Saunders RM., Scott JT., Semple MG., Sereno M., Shah AM., Sheikh A., Shikotra A., Singapuri A., Taquet M., Thomas D., Thompson R., Thorpe M., Toshner M., Wang L., Wootton DG., Zheng B., Wain LV., Brightling CE., Singh SJ., Taylor RS., Evans RA.
Background Preexisting multiple (two or more) long-term conditions (MLTCs) may negatively affect recovery after COVID-19. We investigated how preexisting MLTCs, including different categorization and patterns of MLTCs, affect 1-year health outcomes after severe COVID-19. Methods Adults post-hospitalization after COVID-19 were recruited during 2020-2021. We compared recovery at 1 year after discharge using adjusted multivariable logistic regression in 1:1 propensity-matched adults (for age, sex, ethnicity, social deprivation, obesity, and smoking history) with and without preexisting MLTCs. In adults with MLTCs, different categorization such as number of conditions, number and types of body systems involved (e.g. respiratory, cardiovascular), and latent class analysis–derived patterns of condition co-occurrence were assessed for their association with recovery at 1 year. Results A total of 647 adults with MLTCs were matched with 647 adults without MLTCs (n = 1294; 61.9% male, 79.6% of White ethnicity, median age 59 [interquartile range 52-67] years). The presence of MLTCs was associated with lower odds of feeling fully recovered (odds ratio 0.66 [95% confidence interval 0.51-0.85], P = 0.001). In those with MLTCs, recovery was negatively affected by number and type of body systems involved (e.g. respiratory [odds ratio 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.34-0.69), P <0.001]) but not by the number of conditions ( P >0.1). Four latent classes of MLTC co-occurrence were estimated with different risks of recovery ( P <0.01). Conclusion Adults with preexisting MLTCs were 34% less likely to feel fully recovered at 1 year after COVID-19 hospitalization than adults without MLTCs. We describe prognostic classifications of MLTCs, with future work needed to understand whether they have prognostication in broader post-acute infection sequalae.