Severity of SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) in England.
Grint DJ., Wing K., Houlihan C., Gibbs HP., Evans SJW., Williamson E., McDonald HI., Bhaskaran K., Evans D., Walker AJ., Hickman G., Nightingale E., Schultze A., Rentsch CT., Bates C., Cockburn J., Curtis HJ., Morton CE., Bacon S., Davy S., Wong AYS., Mehrkar A., Tomlinson L., Douglas IJ., Mathur R., MacKenna B., Ingelsby P., Croker R., Parry J., Hester F., Harper S., DeVito NJ., Hulme W., Tazare J., Smeeth L., Goldacre B., Eggo RM.
BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) is associated with higher transmissibility than wild type virus, becoming the dominant variant in England by January 2021. We aimed to describe the severity of the alpha variant in terms of the pathway of disease from testing positive to hospital admission and death. METHODS: With the approval of NHS England, we linked individual-level data from primary care with SARS-CoV-2 community testing, hospital admission, and ONS all-cause death data. We used testing data with S-gene target failure as a proxy for distinguishing alpha and wild-type cases, and stratified Cox proportional hazards regression to compare the relative severity of alpha cases compared to wild type diagnosed from 16th November 2020 to 11th January 2021. RESULTS: Using data from 185,234 people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the community (alpha=93,153; wild-type=92,081), in fully adjusted analysis accounting for individual-level demographics and comorbidities as well as regional variation in infection incidence, we found alpha associated with 73% higher hazards of all-cause death (aHR: 1.73 (95% CI 1.41 - 2.13; P