Transforming public health and economic outcomes by reducing risky behaviors: the potential for South Korea

South Korea faces a diminishing workforce driven by the world's lowest fertility rate, restrictive immigration, and low female labor participation. This paper explores reducing non-communicable diseases from risky behaviors as a solution. We investigate how many cases could be prevented if South Koreans changed risky consumption patterns, and the associated economic healthcare burden impact. Utilizing the Preventable Risk Integrated Model (PRIME), we model hypothetical 2022 reductions in tobacco, alcohol, and unhealthy diet risks to estimate disease case and economic cost impacts. We contrast actual 2022 consumption against a moderate harm reduction scenario. Findings reveal potentially preventing approximately 73,400 new non-communicable disease cases, 69% among working-age Koreans, benefiting the workforce. This reduction could save $13 billion from avoided treatment costs, absenteeism, and premature deaths, including $3.7 billion in 2022 and $9.3 billion in future economic losses. The study emphasizes needing a harm reduction regulatory approach balancing public health and societal realities. We advocate risk-proportionate taxation policies incentivizing consumers toward less harmful alternatives. Given government responsibilities preserving both public health and productivity, smart regulation of risky consumption is critical. This timely research quantifies the significant potential gains from strategic interventions on key risk factors, informing policymakers navigating health promotion and economic objectives.