A decision support tool for risk–benefit analysis of Japanese encephalitis vaccine in travellers

Background: During pre-travel consultations, clinicians and travellers face the challenge of weighing the risks verus benefits of Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccination due to the high cost of the vaccine, low incidence in travellers (∼1 in 1 million), but potentially severe consequences (∼30% case-fatality rate). Personalised JE risk assessment based on the travellers’ demographics and travel itinerary is challenging using standard risk matrices. We developed an interactive digital tool to estimate risks of JE infection and severe health outcomes under different scenarios to facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and travellers. Methods: A Bayesian network (conditional probability) model risk–benefit analysis of JE vaccine in travellers was developed. The model considers travellers’ characteristics (age, sex, co-morbidities), itinerary (destination, departure date, duration, setting of planned activities) and vaccination status to estimate the risks of JE infection, the development of symptomatic disease (meningitis, encephalitis), clinical outcomes (hospital admission, chronic neurological complications, death) and adverse events following immunization. Results: In low-risk travellers (e.g. to urban areas for <1 month), the risk of developing JE and dying is low (<1 per million) irrespective of the destination; thus, the potential impact of JE vaccination in reducing the risk of clinical outcomes is limited. In high-risk travellers (e.g. to rural areas in high JE incidence destinations for >2 months), the risk of developing symptomatic disease and mortality is estimated at 9.5 and 1.4 per million, respectively. JE vaccination in this group would significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic disease and mortality (by ∼80%) to 1.9 and 0.3 per million, respectively.