Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

Dietary and weight-related risk factors currently account for a greater burden of disease than any other group of risk factors. Here we estimate the changes in the health burden that is due to changes in selected dietary and weight-related risk factors for the year 2035 for 155 world regions. For our analysis, we linked the IMPACT agriculture-economic model, which we used to project future food consumption, to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, bodyweight among adults, and moderate and severe stunting among children. We find that changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2015 and 2035 could lead to 76 million DALYs saved, corresponding to 1.7 million avoided deaths globally. About half of the DALYs are projected to be saved in South East Asia, 25% in the Western Pacific, 20% in Africa, and 2% in high-income countries, among others. Most DALYs were saved due to increased fruit and vegetable consumption (67 million), followed by reductions in underweight (31 million) and stunting (19 million), but they were partly offset by additional DALYs due to increased prevalence of obesity (27 million) and overweight (3 million), and increased red meat consumption (12 million).




University of Oxford

Publication Date



1 - 35

Total pages