Modelling the Cost Effectiveness of Population Approaches to Improve Diet and Physical Activity (PRIMEtime)
Funders: the Wellcome Trust, NIHR, the European Commission, the Richmond Group and others
We have developed the PRIMEtime model: a closed-cohort proportional multi-state life table model that estimates changes in health outcomes (both mortality and morbidity), NHS costs, social care costs and broader societal costs due to population changes in diet and physical activity. PRIMEtime is designed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population approaches to public health. It has been used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of salt reformulation and subsidising access to sports facilities and swimming pools, the potential health impact of achieving the Eatwell Guide in the UK, and of achieving sustainable dietary scenarios in five European countries. Ongoing work with PRIMEtime will evaluate the impact on disease burden and health care costs of the UK Sugar Drink Industry Levy and Public Health England’s sugar reduction strategy, and estimation of the long term health impact of weight reduction strategies under trajectories of weight regain.
Description of the epidemiological aspects of the PRIMEtime model.
Further articles describing the derivation of costs and utilities are in development.