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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
Pre-existing musculoskeletal pain and its association with mortality in newly diagnosed co-morbid conditions: an electronic health record cohort study
Objective: Musculoskeletal pain is a common risk factor for co-morbid conditions and might increase the risk of poor outcomes. The objective was to determine whether patients with pre-existing musculoskeletal pain have an increased risk for mortality following a new diagnosis of a co-morbid condition. Methods: Patients aged ≥45 years with a new diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke, cancer, dementia or pneumonia recorded in a UK electronic primary care database linked to hospital and mortality records were examined. The association of mortality with musculoskeletal pain (inflammatory conditions, OA and regional pain) was determined. Results: The sample size varied from 128649 (stroke) to 406289 (cancer) by cohort, with 22-31% having pre-existing musculoskeletal conditions. In the ACS cohort, there was a higher rate of mortality for all musculoskeletal types. There were also higher unadjusted mortality rates in patients with inflammatory arthritis compared with those without musculoskeletal pain in the stroke, cancer and dementia cohorts and for patients with OA in the stroke and cancer cohorts. After adjustment for the number of prescribed medications and age, the increased risk of mortality remained only for patients with inflammatory arthritis in the ACS cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.07; 95% CI 1.03, 1.10). Conclusion: Older adults with inflammatory arthritis and OA have increased risk of mortality when they develop a new condition, which seems to be related to the prescription of multiple medicines. Pre-existing musculoskeletal pain is an indicator of a complex patient who is at risk of poorer outcomes at the onset of new illnesses.
Using microbiological data to improve the use of antibiotics for respiratory tract infections: A protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis
BACKGROUND: Resistance to antibiotics is rising and threatens future antibiotic effectiveness. 'Antibiotic targeting' ensures patients who may benefit from antibiotics receive them, while being safely withheld from those who may not. Point-of-care tests may assist with antibiotic targeting by allowing primary care clinicians to establish if symptomatic patients have a viral, bacterial, combined, or no infection. However, because organisms can be harmlessly carried, it is important to know if the presence of the virus/bacteria is related to the illness for which the patient is being assessed. One way to do this is to look for associations with more severe/prolonged symptoms and test results. Previous research to answer this question for acute respiratory tract infections has given conflicting results with studies has not having enough participants to provide statistical confidence. AIM: To undertake a synthesis of IPD from both randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational cohort studies of respiratory tract infections (RTI) in order to investigate the prognostic value of microbiological data in addition to, or instead of, clinical symptoms and signs. METHODS: A systematic search of Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase will be carried out for studies of acute respiratory infection in primary care settings. The outcomes of interest are duration of disease, severity of disease, repeated consultation with new/worsening illness and complications requiring hospitalisation. Authors of eligible studies will be contacted to provide anonymised individual participant data. The data will be harmonised and aggregated. Multilevel regression analysis will be conducted to determine key outcome measures for different potential pathogens and whether these offer any additional information on prognosis beyond clinical symptoms and signs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Registration number: CRD42023376769.
Maternal Wellbeing Five Years after a Very Preterm Delivery: Prevalence and Influencing Factors in a European Cohort
(1) Background: Mothers of very preterm (VPT) infants may experience psychological symptoms compromising long-term emotional wellbeing. This study describes the emotional wellbeing of mothers of five-year-old children born VPT. We assess the association between sociodemographic, perinatal and neonatal characteristics, and the child’s health and development at five years old and maternal emotional wellbeing. (2) Methods: Data are from the prospective European “Effective Perinatal Intensive Care in Europe” (EPICE) and subsequent “Screening for Health In very Preterm infantS in Europe” (SHIPS) projects including births <32 weeks’ gestational age in 11 countries in 2011/12. Data were abstracted from obstetric and neonatal records. At five years old, 2605 mothers answered a parental questionnaire including the Mental Health Inventory-5 (MHI-5). Associations between sociodemographic and health characteristics and the mother’s MHI-5 score were investigated using multilevel multivariate linear regression analysis with the country modelled as a random effect and inverse probability weighting to correct for attrition bias. (3) Results: The mean MHI-5 score was 71.3 (SD 16.7) out of 100 (highest emotional wellbeing) with a variation among countries from 63.5 (SD 16.8; Poland) to 82.3 (SD 15.8; the Netherlands). MHI-5 scores were significantly lower for mothers whose child had a severe health problem, developmental, or speech delay, for multiparous and single mothers, and when at least one of the parents was unemployed. (4) Conclusions: The emotional wellbeing of mothers of VPT infants differs between European countries. Identifying sociodemographic characteristics and child’s health and developmental conditions that affect maternal emotional wellbeing may help to identify groups of mothers who need special assistance to cope with consequences of the delivery of a VPT child.
BMI Short Data Report Github Repo
https://jobs.opensafely.org/repo/https%253A%252F%252Fgithub.com%252Fopensafely%252Fbmi-short-data-report Details of the purpose and any published outputs from this project can be found at the link above.
Case Report: What—or who—killed Frank Ramsey? Some reflections on cause of death and the nature of medical reasoning
Philosopher Frank Ramsey died in 1930 aged only 26. There has been much speculation about the nature of his final illness and the sequence of events which led to his death. To prepare this case report, we traced Ramsey’s medical records and combined them with an extensive and unique dataset of contemporaneous sources. We use these to evaluate three possible explanations for Ramsey’s illness and its unexpectedly fatal trajectory—infectious (Weil’s disease), autoimmune (primary sclerosing cholangitis) and obstructive (gallstones). We explore how uncertainty surrounding each of these possibilities might have influenced Ramsey’s doctors’ thoughts and actions, including their ill-fated decision to perform the emergency operation that appears to have precipitated his final decline. We then reflect on the unfinished opus on which Ramsey was working when he died—on the nature of truth and how humans reason under conditions of uncertainty. We end with some thoughts linking Ramsey’s death to his philosophy.
Availability of results of clinical trials registered on EU Clinical Trials Register: cross sectional audit study
ObjectiveTo identify the availability of results for trials registered on the European Union Clinical Trials Register (EUCTR) compared with other dissemination routes to understand its value as a results repository.DesignCross sectional audit study.SettingEUCTR protocols and results sections, data extracted 1-3 December 2020.PopulationRandom sample of 500 trials registered on EUCTR with a completion date of more than two years from the beginning of searches (ie, 1 December 2018).Main outcome measuresProportion of trials with results across the examined dissemination routes (EUCTR, ClinicalTrials.gov, ISRCTN registry, and journal publications), and for each dissemination route individually. Prespecified secondary outcomes were number and proportion of unique results, and the timing of results, for each dissemination route.ResultsIn the sample of 500 trials, availability of results on EUCTR (53.2%, 95% confidence interval 48.8% to 57.6%) was similar to the peer reviewed literature (58.6%, 54.3% to 62.9%) and exceeded the proportion of results available on other registries with matched records. Among the 383 trials with any results, 55 (14.4%, 10.9% to 17.9%) were only available on EUCTR. Also, after the launch of the EUCTR results database, median time to results was fastest on EUCTR (1142 days, 95% confidence interval 812 to 1492), comparable with journal publications (1226 days, 1074 to 1551), and exceeding ClinicalTrials.gov (3321 days, 1653 to undefined). For 117 trials (23.4%, 19.7% to 27.1%), however, results were published elsewhere but not submitted to the EUCTR registry, and no results were located in any dissemination route for 117 trials (23.4%, 19.7% to 27.1).ConclusionsEUCTR should be considered in results searches for systematic reviews and can help researchers and the public to access the results of clinical trials, unavailable elsewhere, in a timely way. Reporting requirements, such as the EU's, can help in avoiding research waste by ensuring results are reported. The registry's true value, however, is unrealised because of inadequate compliance with EU guidelines, and problems with data quality that complicate the routine use of the registry. As the EU transitions to a new registry, continuing to emphasise the importance of EUCTR and the provision of timely and complete data is critical. For the future, EUCTR will still hold important information from the past two decades of clinical research in Europe. With increased efforts from sponsors and regulators, the registry can continue to grow as a source of results of clinical trials, many of which might be unavailable from other dissemination routes.
A multifaceted intervention to reduce antibiotic prescribing among CHIldren with acute COugh and respiratory tract infection: the CHICO cluster RCT.
BackgroundClinical uncertainty in primary care regarding the prognosis of children with respiratory tract infections contributes to the unnecessary use of antibiotics. Improved identification of children at low risk of future hospitalisation might reduce clinical uncertainty. A National Institute for Health and Care Research-funded 5-year programme (RP-PG-0608-10018) was used to develop and feasibility test an intervention.ObjectivesThe aim of the children with acute cough randomised controlled trial was to reduce antibiotic prescribing among children presenting with acute cough and respiratory tract infection without increasing hospital admission.DesignAn efficient, pragmatic open-label, two-arm trial (with embedded qualitative and health economic analyses) using practice-level randomisation using routinely collected data as the primary outcome.SettingGeneral practitioner practices in England.ParticipantsGeneral practitioner practices using the Egton Medical Information Systems® patient-record system for children aged 0-9 years presenting with a cough or upper respiratory tract infection. Recruited by Clinical Research Networks and Clinical Commissioning Groups.InterventionComprised: (1) elicitation of parental concerns during consultation; (2) a clinician-focused prognostic algorithm to identify children with acute cough and respiratory tract infection at low, average or elevated risk of hospitalisation in the next 30 days accompanied by prescribing guidance, (3) provision of a printout for carers including safety-netting advice.Main outcome measuresCo-primaries using the practice list-size for children aged 0-9 years as the denominator: rate of dispensed amoxicillin and macrolide items at each practice (superiority comparison) from NHS Business Services Authority ePACT2 and rate of hospital admission for respiratory tract infection (non-inferiority comparison) from Clinical Commissioning Groups, both routinely collected over 12 months.ResultsOf the 310 practices required, 294 (95%) were recruited (144 intervention and 150 controls) with 336,496 registered 0-9-year-olds (5% of all 0-9-year-old children in England) from 47 Clinical Commissioning Groups. Included practices were slightly larger than those not included, had slightly lower baseline dispensing rates and were located in more deprived areas (reflecting the distribution for practice postcodes nationally). Twelve practices (4%) subsequently withdrew (six related to the pandemic). The median number of times the intervention was used was 70 per practice (by a median of 9 clinicians) over 12 months. There was no evidence that the antibiotic dispensing rate in the intervention practices [0.155 (95% confidence interval 0.135 to 0.179)] differed to controls [0.154 (95% confidence interval 0.130 to 0.182), relative risk= 1.011 (95% confidence interval 0.992 to 1.029); p = 0.253]. There was, overall, a reduction in dispensing levels and intervention usage during the pandemic. The rate of hospitalisation for respiratory tract infection in the intervention practices [0.019 (95% confidence interval 0.014 to 0.026)] compared to the controls [0.021 (95% confidence interval 0.014 to 0.029)] was non-inferior [relative risk = 0.952 (95% confidence interval 0.905 to 1.003)]. The qualitative evaluation found the clinicians liked the intervention, used it as a supportive aid, especially with borderline cases but that it, did not always integrate well within the consultation flow and was used less over time. The economic evaluation found no evidence of a difference in mean National Health Service costs between arms; mean difference -£1999 (95% confidence interval -£6627 to 2630).ConclusionsThe intervention was feasible and subjectively useful to practitioners, with no evidence of harm in terms of hospitalisations, but did not impact on antibiotic prescribing rates.Future work and limitationsAlthough the intervention does not appear to change prescribing behaviour, elements of the approach may be used in the design of future interventions.Trial registrationThis trial is registered as ISRCTN11405239 (date assigned 20 April 2018) at www.controlled-trials.com (accessed 5 September 2022). Version 4.0 of the protocol is available at: https://www.journalslibrary.nihr.ac.uk/ (accessed 5 September 2022).FundingThis award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (NIHR award ref: 16/31/98) programme and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 32. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
Cross-sectional survey of sexual health professionals' experiences and perceptions of the 2022 mpox outbreak in the UK.
OBJECTIVE: To understand the experiences and perceptions of sexual health professionals responding to the May 2022 mpox outbreak in the UK. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, anonymous, online survey collecting quantitative and qualitative data. Convenience sample recruited via an international network of sexual health and HIV clinicians responding to mpox and promoted through clinical associations and social media. Survey domains included: clinical workload; preparedness, support, and training; safety at work; vaccination; and well-being. Qualitative descriptive analysis of open-text responses was conducted to support interpretation of the quantitative data. PARTICIPANTS: Participants who were employed as sexual health professionals in the UK and had direct clinical experience of mpox were included in the analysis. The survey was completed between 11 August and 31 October 2022 by 139 respondents, the majority of whom were doctors (72.7%), cis-female (70.5%) and White (78.4%). RESULTS: 70.3% reported that they were required to respond to mpox in addition to their existing clinical responsibilities, with 46.8% working longer hours as a result. In the open-text data, respondents highlighted that workload pressures were exacerbated by a lack of additional funding for mpox, pre-existing pressures on sexual health services, and unrealistic expectations around capacity. 67.6% of respondents reported experiencing negative emotional impact due to their mpox work, with stress (59.0%), fatigue (43.2%) and anxiety (36.0%) being the most common symptoms. 35.8% stated that they were less likely to remain in their profession because of their experiences during the mpox outbreak. In the open-text data, these feelings were ascribed to post-COVID exhaustion, understaffing and frustration among some participants at the handling of the mpox response. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that sexual health services require increased funding and resources, along with evidence-based well-being interventions, to support sexual health professionals' outbreak preparedness and recovery.
Comparative Risk of Major Congenital Malformations With Antiseizure Medication Combinations vs Valproate Monotherapy in Pregnancy.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Valproate should be avoided in pregnancy, but it is the most effective drug for generalized epilepsies. Alternative treatment may require combinations of other drugs. Our objectives were to describe first trimester use of antiseizure medication (ASM) combinations that are relevant alternatives to valproate and determine whether specific combinations were associated with a lower risk of major congenital malformations (MCM) compared with valproate monotherapy. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked national registers from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden and administrative health care data from the United States and New South Wales, Australia. We described first trimester use of ASM combinations among pregnant people with epilepsy from 2000 to 2020. We compared the risk of MCM after first trimester exposure to ASM combinations vs valproate monotherapy and low-dose valproate plus lamotrigine or levetiracetam vs high-dose valproate (≥1,000 mg/d). We used log-binomial regression with propensity score weights to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for each dataset. Results were pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 50,905 pregnancies in people with epilepsy identified from 7.8 million total pregnancies, 788 used lamotrigine and levetiracetam, 291 used lamotrigine and topiramate, 208 used levetiracetam and topiramate, 80 used lamotrigine and zonisamide, and 91 used levetiracetam and zonisamide. After excluding pregnancies with use of other ASMs, known teratogens, or a child diagnosed with MCM of infectious or genetic cause, we compared 587 exposed to lamotrigine-levetiracetam duotherapy and 186 exposed to lamotrigine-topiramate duotherapy with 1959 exposed to valproate monotherapy. Pooled aRRs were 0.41 (95% CI 0.24-0.69) and 1.26 (0.71-2.23), respectively. Duotherapy combinations containing low-dose valproate were infrequent, and comparisons with high-dose valproate monotherapy were inconclusive but suggested a lower risk for combination therapy. Other combinations were too rare for comparative safety analyses. DISCUSSION: Lamotrigine-levetiracetam duotherapy in first trimester was associated with a 60% lower risk of MCM than valproate monotherapy, while lamotrigine-topiramate was not associated with a reduced risk. Duotherapy with lamotrigine and levetiracetam may be favored to treat epilepsy in people with childbearing potential compared with valproate regarding MCM, but whether this combination is as effective as valproate remains to be determined. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that in people with epilepsy treated in the first trimester of pregnancy, the risk of major congenital malformations is lower with lamotrigine-levetiracetam duotherapy than with valproate alone, but similar with lamotrigine-topiramate.
Diagnostic accuracy of Fever-PAIN and Centor criteria for bacterial throat infection in adults with sore throat: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial
Background: Sore throat is a common and self-limiting condition. There remains ambiguity in stratifying patients to immediate, delayed, or no antibiotic prescriptions. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends two clinical prediction rules (CPRs), FeverPAIN and Centor, to guide decision making. Aim: To describe the diagnostic accuracy of CPRs in identifying streptococcal throat infections. Design & setting: Adults presenting to UK primary care with sore throat, who did not require immediate antibiotics. Method: As part of the Treatment Options without Antibiotics for Sore Throat (TOAST) trial, 565 participants, aged ≥18 years, were recruited on day of presentation to general practice. Physicians could opt to give delayed prescriptions. CPR scores were not part of the trial protocol but were calculated post hoc from baseline assessments. Diagnostic accuracy was calculated by comparing scores with throat swab cultures. Results: It was found that 81/502 (16.1%) patients had group A, C, or G streptococcus cultured on throat swab. Overall diagnostic accuracy of both CPRs was poor: area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve 0.62 for Centor; and 0.59 for FeverPAIN. Post-test probability of a positive or negative test was 27.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.0% to 61.0%) and 84.1% (95% CI = 80.6% to 87.2%) for FeverPAIN ≥4; versus 25.7% (95% CI = 16.2% to 37.2%) and 85.5% (95% CI = 81.8% to 88.7%) for Centor ≥3. Higher CPR scores were associated with increased delayed antibiotic prescriptions (χ2 = 8.42, P = 0.004 for FeverPAIN ≥4; χ2 = 32.0, P<0.001 for Centor ≥3). Conclusion: In those who do not require immediate antibiotics in primary care, neither CPR provides a reliable way of diagnosing streptococcal throat infection. However, clinicians were more likely to give delayed prescriptions to those with higher scores
The prediction of suicide in severe mental illness: development and validation of a clinical prediction rule (OxMIS)
Assessment of suicide risk in individuals with severe mental illness is currently inconsistent, and based on clinical decision-making with or without tools developed for other purposes. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for suicide using data from linked population-based registers in individuals with severe mental illness. A national cohort of 75,158 Swedish individuals aged 15–65 with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, and bipolar disorder) with 574,018 clinical patient episodes between 2001 and 2008, split into development (58,771 patients, 494 suicides) and external validation (16,387 patients, 139 suicides) samples. A multivariable derivation model was developed to determine the strength of pre-specified routinely collected socio-demographic and clinical risk factors, and then tested in external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of suicide at 1 year using specified risk cut-offs. A 17-item clinical risk prediction model for suicide was developed and showed moderately good measures of discrimination (c-index 0.71) and calibration. For risk of suicide at 1 year, using a pre-specified 1% cut-off, sensitivity was 55% (95% confidence interval [CI] 47–63%) and specificity was 75% (95% CI 74–75%). Positive and negative predictive values were 2% and 99%, respectively. The model was used to generate a simple freely available web-based probability-based risk calculator (Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool or OxMIS) without categorical cut-offs. A scalable prediction score for suicide in individuals with severe mental illness is feasible. If validated in other samples and linked to effective interventions, using a probability score may assist clinical decision-making.
Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of two point-of-care tests for COVID-19 when used in symptomatic patients in community settings in the UK primary care COVID diagnostic accuracy platform trial (RAPTOR-C19)
Background and objective Point-of-care lateral flow device antigen testing has been used extensively to identify individuals with active SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of two point-of-care tests (POCTs) for SARS-CoV-2 in routine community care. Methods Adults and children with symptoms consistent with suspected current COVID-19 infection were prospectively recruited from 19 UK general practices and two COVID-19 testing centres between October 2020 and October 2021. Participants were tested by trained healthcare workers using at least one of two index POCTs (Roche-branded SD Biosensor Standard™ Q SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test and/or BD Veritor™ System for Rapid Detection of SARS-CoV-2). The reference standard was laboratory triplex reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-PCR) using a combined nasal/oropharyngeal swab. Diagnostic accuracy parameters were estimated, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), overall, in relation to RT-PCR cycle threshold and in pre-specified subgroups.
Perceptions on undertaking regular asymptomatic self-testing for COVID-19 using lateral flow tests: A qualitative study of university students and staff
Objectives Successful implementation of asymptomatic testing programmes using lateral flow tests (LFTs) depends on several factors, including feasibility, acceptability and how people act on test results. We aimed to examine experiences of university students and staff of regular asymptomatic self-testing using LFTs, and their subsequent behaviours. Design and setting A qualitative study using semistructured remote interviews and qualitative survey responses, which were analysed thematically. Participants People who were participating in weekly testing feasibility study, between October 2020 and January 2021, at the University of Oxford. Results We interviewed 18 and surveyed 214 participants. Participants were motivated to regularly self-test as they wanted to know whether or not they were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Most reported that a negative test result did not change their behaviour, but it did provide them with reassurance to engage with permitted activities. In contrast, some participants reported making decisions about visiting other people because they felt reassured by a negative test result. Participants valued the training but some still doubted their ability to carry out the test. Participants were concerned about safety of attending test sites with lots of people and reported home testing was most convenient. Conclusions Clear messages highlighting the benefits of regular testing for family, friends and society in identifying asymptomatic cases are needed. This should be coupled with transparent communication about the accuracy of LFTs and how to act on either a positive or negative result. Concerns about safety, convenience of testing and ability to do tests need to be addressed to ensure successful scaling up of asymptomatic testing.
Feasibility and Acceptability of Community Coronavirus Disease 2019 Testing Strategies (FACTS) in a University Setting
Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, the UK government began a mass severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing program. This study aimed to determine the feasibility and acceptability of organized regular self-testing for SARS-CoV-2. Methods: This was a mixed-methods observational cohort study in asymptomatic students and staff at University of Oxford, who performed SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow self-testing. Data on uptake and adherence, acceptability, and test interpretation were collected via a smartphone app, an online survey, and qualitative interviews. Results: Across 3 main sites, 551 participants (25% of those invited) performed 2728 tests during a follow-up of 5.6 weeks; 447 participants (81%) completed at least 2 tests, and 340 (62%) completed at least 4. The survey, completed by 214 participants (39%), found that 98% of people were confident to self-test and believed self-testing to be beneficial. Acceptability of self-testing was high, with 91% of ratings being acceptable or very acceptable. A total of 2711 (99.4%) test results were negative, 9 were positive, and 8 were inconclusive. Results from 18 qualitative interviews with students and staff revealed that participants valued regular testing, but there were concerns about test accuracy that impacted uptake and adherence. Conclusions: This is the first study to assess feasibility and acceptability of regular SARS-CoV-2 self-testing. It provides evidence to inform recruitment for, adherence to, and acceptability of regular SARS-CoV-2 self-testing programs for asymptomatic individuals using lateral flow tests. We found that self-testing is acceptable and people were able to interpret results accurately.