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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
The Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial (HEAT): A Large Simple Randomised Controlled Trial Using Novel Methodology in Primary Care
Background: Clinical trials measuring the effect of an intervention on clinical outcomes are more influential than those investigating surrogate measures but are costly. We developed methods to reduce costs substantially by using existing data in primary care systems, to ask whether Helicobacter pylori eradication would reduce the incidence of hospitalisation for ulcer bleeding in aspirin users. Methods: The Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial (HEAT) is a National Institute of Health Research-funded, double-blind placebo controlled randomised trial of the effects of H. pylori eradication on subsequent ulcer bleeding in infected individuals taking aspirin daily, conducted in practices across the whole of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. A bespoke web-based trial management system developed for the trial (and housed within the secure NHS Data Network) communicates directly with the HEAT Toolkit software downloaded at participating practices, which issues queries searching entry criteria (≥ 60 years, on chronic aspirin ≤ 325 mg daily, not on anti-ulcer therapy or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) for GP review of eligibility. Trial participation is invited using a highly secure automated online mail management system. Interested patients are seen once for consent and breath testing. Those with a positive test are randomised to eradication treatment (lansoprazole, clarithromycin, metronidazole) or placebo, with drug sent by post. Events are tracked by upload of accumulating information in the GP database, patient contact, review of National Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data. Results: HEAT is the largest Clinical Research Network-supported drug trial, with 115,660 invitation letters sent from 850 practices, 22,922 volunteers, and 3038 H. pylori positive patients randomised to active or placebo treatment after 2.5. years of recruitment. 178 practices have performed their first follow-up data search to identify 21 potential endpoints to date. Discussion: HEAT is important medically, because aspirin is so widely used, and methodologically, as a successful trial would show that large-scale studies of important clinical outcomes can be conducted at a fraction of the cost of those conducted by industry, which in turn will help to ensure that trials of primarily medical rather than commercial interest can be conducted successfully in the UK.
Real-world effect of antidepressants for depressive disorder in primary care: Protocol of a population-based cohort study
Introduction Clinical guidelines recommend antidepressants as the first line of treatment for adults with moderate-to-severe depression. Randomised trials provide the best evidence on the comparative effectiveness of antidepressants for depression, but are limited by a short follow-up and a highly selected population. We aim to conduct a cohort study on a large database to assess acceptability, efficacy, safety and tolerability of antidepressant monotherapy in people with depressive disorder in primary care. Methods and analysis This is a protocol for a cohort study using data from the QResearch primary care research database, which is the largest general practice research database in the UK. We will include patients registered for at least 1 year from 1 January 1998, diagnosed with a new episode of depression and on antidepressant and a comparison group not on antidepressant. The exposure of interest will be treatment with antidepressant medications. Our outcomes will be acceptability (treatment discontinuation due to any cause), efficacy (clinical response and remission); safety (adverse events (AEs) and all-cause mortality); and tolerability (dropouts due to any AE) measured at 2 months, 6 months and 1 year. For each outcome, we will estimate the absolute risks for all antidepressants, and relative effects between antidepressants using Cox's proportion hazards models. We will calculate HRs and 99.9% CIs for each outcome of interest. Discussion The main limitation is the observational nature of our study, while the major strengths include the large representative population contained in QResearch and the possibly high generalisability.
Anticholinergic Drug Exposure and the Risk of Dementia: A Nested Case-Control Study
Importance: Anticholinergic medicines have short-term cognitive adverse effects, but it is uncertain whether long-term use of these drugs is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Objective: To assess associations between anticholinergic drug treatments and risk of dementia in persons 55 years or older. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nested case-control study took place in general practices in England that contributed to the QResearch primary care database. The study evaluated whether exposure to anticholinergic drugs was associated with dementia risk in 58769 patients with a diagnosis of dementia and 225574 controls 55 years or older matched by age, sex, general practice, and calendar time. Information on prescriptions for 56 drugs with strong anticholinergic properties was used to calculate measures of cumulative anticholinergic drug exposure. Data were analyzed from May 2016 to June 2018. Exposures: The primary exposure was the total standardized daily doses (TSDDs) of anticholinergic drugs prescribed in the 1 to 11 years prior to the date of diagnosis of dementia or equivalent date in matched controls (index date). Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds ratios (ORs) for dementia associated with cumulative exposure to anticholinergic drugs, adjusted for confounding variables. Results: Of the entire study population (284343 case patients and matched controls), 179365 (63.1%) were women, and the mean (SD) age of the entire population was 82.2 (6.8) years. The adjusted OR for dementia increased from 1.06 (95% CI, 1.03-1.09) in the lowest overall anticholinergic exposure category (total exposure of 1-90 TSDDs) to 1.49 (95% CI, 1.44-1.54) in the highest category (>1095 TSDDs), compared with no anticholinergic drug prescriptions in the 1 to 11 years before the index date. There were significant increases in dementia risk for the anticholinergic antidepressants (adjusted OR [AOR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.24-1.34), antiparkinson drugs (AOR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.16-2.00), antipsychotics (AOR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.53-1.90), bladder antimuscarinic drugs (AOR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.56-1.75), and antiepileptic drugs (AOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.22-1.57) all for more than 1095 TSDDs. Results were similar when exposures were restricted to exposure windows of 3 to 13 years (AOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.41-1.52) and 5 to 20 years (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.32-1.57) before the index date for more than 1095 TSDDs. Associations were stronger in cases diagnosed before the age of 80 years. The population-attributable fraction associated with total anticholinergic drug exposure during the 1 to 11 years before diagnosis was 10.3%. Conclusions and Relevance: Exposure to several types of strong anticholinergic drugs is associated with an increased risk of dementia. These findings highlight the importance of reducing exposure to anticholinergic drugs in middle-aged and older people.
Estimating the prevalence of medically unexplained symptoms from primary care records
Objectives: To develop models to estimate the likely prevalence of medically unexplained symptoms (MUS) and severe MUS in a primary care practice from existing patient electronic records collected in the previous 2 years for secondary prevention and commissioning of psychological treatment. Study design: Cross-sectional survey comparing general practitioners' (GPs) assessment of the presence or absence of MUS and severe MUS with clinical, demographic and service use variables associated with MUS or functional somatic syndromes from previous research in the patient's routine electronic record over the previous 2 years. Methods: Seventeen GPs from eight practices identified cases of MUS and severe MUS in 828 consecutive consulters in primary care. Models of variables associated with MUS and severe MUS were constructed using multivariate multilevel logistic regression. The predictive validity of the final models was tested, comparing predicted with observed data and expected prevalence rates from the literature. Results: Models to predict MUS and severe MUS had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.70 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.74] and 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.82), respectively. Both models showed adequate goodness of fit with observed data, and had good predictive validity compared with the expected prevalence of MUS, severe MUS, and anxiety or depression. Conclusion: Models to predict the prevalence of MUS and severe MUS from routine practice records for commissioning purposes were successfully developed, but they require independent validation before general use. The sensitivity of these models was too low for use in clinical screening. © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health.
Incidence and prevalence of primary care antidepressant prescribing in children and young people in England, 1998–2017: A population-based cohort study
Background The use of antidepressants in children and adolescents remains controversial. We examined trends over time and variation in antidepressant prescribing in children and young people in England and whether the drugs prescribed reflected UK licensing and guidelines. Methods and findings QResearch is a primary care database containing anonymised healthcare records of over 32 million patients from more than 1,500 general practices across the UK. All eligible children and young people aged 5–17 years in 1998–2017 from QResearch were included. Incidence and prevalence rates of antidepressant prescriptions in each year were calculated overall, for 4 antidepressant classes (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs], tricyclic and related antidepressants [TCAs], serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs], and other antidepressants), and for individual drugs. Adjusted trends over time and differences by social deprivation, region, and ethnicity were examined using Poisson regression, taking clustering within general practitioner (GP) practices into account using multilevel modelling. Of the 4.3 million children and young people in the cohort, 49,434 (1.1%) were prescribed antidepressants for the first time during 20 million years of follow-up. Males made up 52.0% of the cohorts, but only 34.1% of those who were first prescribed an antidepressant in the study period. The largest proportion of the cohort was from London (24.4%), and whilst ethnicity information was missing for 39.5% of the cohort, of those with known ethnicity, 75.3% were White. Overall, SSRIs (62.6%) were the most commonly prescribed first antidepressant, followed by TCAs (35.7%). Incident antidepressant prescribing decreased in 5- to 11-year-olds from a peak of 0.9 in females and 1.6 in males in 1999 to less than 0.2 per 1,000 for both sexes in 2017, but incidence rates more than doubled in 12-to 17-year-olds between 2005 and 2017 to 9.7 (females) and 4.2 (males) per 1,000 person-years. The lowest prescription incidence rates were in London, and the highest were in the South East of England (excluding London) for all sex and age groups. Those living in more deprived areas were more likely to be prescribed antidepressants after adjusting for region. The strongest trend was seen in 12- to 17-year-old females (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11–1.13, p < 0.001, per deprivation quintile increase). Prescribing rates were highest in White and lowest in Black adolescents (aIRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.29–0.36, p < 0.001 [females]; aIRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.27–0.38, p < 0.001 [males]). The 5 most commonly prescribed antidepressants were either licensed in the UK for use in children and young people (CYP) or included in national guidelines. Limitations of the study are that, because we did not have access to secondary care prescribing information, we may be underestimating the prevalence and misidentifying the first antidepressant prescription. We could not assess whether antidepressants were dispensed or taken. Conclusions Our analysis provides evidence of a continuing rise of antidepressant prescribing in adolescents aged 12–17 years since 2005, driven by SSRI prescriptions, but a decrease in children aged 5–11 years. The variation in prescribing by deprivation, region, and ethnicity could represent inequities. Future research should examine whether prescribing trends and variation are due to true differences in need and risk factors, access to diagnosis or treatment, prescribing behaviour, or young people’s help-seeking behaviour.
Risk of severe COVID-19 disease with ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers: Cohort study including 8.3 million people
Background There is uncertainty about the associations of angiotensive enzyme (ACE) inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) drugs with COVID-19 disease. We studied whether patients prescribed these drugs had altered risks of contracting severe COVID-19 disease and receiving associated intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods This was a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data from 1205 general practices in England with 8.28 million participants aged 20-99 years. We used Cox proportional hazards models to derive adjusted HRs for exposure to ACE inhibitor and ARB drugs adjusted for sociodemographic factors, concurrent medications and geographical region. The primary outcomes were: (a) COVID-19 RT-PCR diagnosed disease and (b) COVID-19 disease resulting in ICU care. Findings Of 19 486 patients who had COVID-19 disease, 1286 received ICU care. ACE inhibitors were associated with a significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 disease (adjusted HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) but no increased risk of ICU care (adjusted HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.06) after adjusting for a wide range of confounders. Adjusted HRs for ARBs were 0.63 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.67) for COVID-19 disease and 1.02 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.25) for ICU care. There were significant interactions between ethnicity and ACE inhibitors and ARBs for COVID-19 disease. The risk of COVID-19 disease associated with ACE inhibitors was higher in Caribbean (adjusted HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.28) and Black African (adjusted HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.59) groups than the white group (adjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.70). A higher risk of COVID-19 with ARBs was seen for Black African (adjusted HR 1.24, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.58) than the white (adjusted HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.62) group. Interpretation ACE inhibitors and ARBs are associated with reduced risks of COVID-19 disease after adjusting for a wide range of variables. Neither ACE inhibitors nor ARBs are associated with significantly increased risks of receiving ICU care. Variations between different ethnic groups raise the possibility of ethnic-specific effects of ACE inhibitors/ARBs on COVID-19 disease susceptibility and severity which deserves further study.
Alcohol Misuse and Injury Outcomes in Young People Aged 10–24
Purpose: The burden of alcohol-attributable disease is a global problem. Young people often present to emergency health-care services with alcohol intoxication but little is known about how best to intervene at that point to improve future health outcomes. This study aimed to assess whether young people with an alcohol-specific hospital admission are at increased risk of injury following discharge. Methods: A cohort study was conducted using a general population of 10- to 24-year-olds identified using primary care medical records with linked hospital admission records between 1998 and 2013. Exposed individuals had an alcohol-specific admission. Unexposed individuals did not and were frequency matched by age (±5 years) and general practice (ratio 10:1). Incidence rates of injury-related hospital admission post discharge were calculated, and hazard ratios (HR) were estimated by Cox regression. Results: The cohort comprised 11,042 exposed and 110,656 unexposed individuals with 4,944 injury-related admissions during follow-up (2,092 in exposed). Injury rates were six times higher in those with a prior alcohol admission (73.92 per 1,000 person-years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 70.82–77.16 vs. 12.36, 11.91–12.81). The risk of an injury admission was highest in the month following an alcohol-specific admission (adjusted HR = 15.62, 95% CI 14.08–17.34), and remained higher compared to those with no previous alcohol-specific admission at 1 year (HR 5.28 (95% CI 4.97–5.60)) and throughout follow-up. Conclusions: Young people with an alcohol-specific admission are at increased risk of subsequent injury requiring hospitalization, especially immediately post discharge, indicating a need for prompt intervention as soon as alcohol misuse behaviors are identified.
Psychological morbidity and return to work after injury: Multicentre cohort study
Background The benefits of work for physical, psychological, and financial wellbeing are well documented. Return to work (RTW) after unintentional injury is often delayed, and psychological morbidity may contribute to this delay. The impact of psychological morbidity on RTW after a wide range of unintentional injuries in the UK has not been adequately quantified. Aim To quantify the role of psychological factors, including anxiety, depression, and post-Traumatic distress, on RTW following unintentional injuries. Design and setting A longitudinal multicentre prospective study was undertaken in Nottingham, Bristol, Leicester, and Guildford, UK. Method Participants (n = 273) were 16-69-year-olds admitted to hospital following unintentional injury, who were in paid employment prior to injury. They were surveyed at baseline, then at 1, 2, 4, and 12 months following injury; demographic data were collected along with injury characteristics, psychological morbidity, and RTW status. Associations between demographic, injury and psychological factors, and RTW between 2 and 12 months after injury were quantified using random effects logistic regression. Results The odds of RTW between 2 and 12 months after injury reduced as depression scores early in the recovery period (1 month after injury) increased (odds ratio [OR] 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.79 to 0.95) and as length of hospital stay increased (OR 0.91, 95% CI] = 0.86 to 0.96). For those experiencing threatening life events following injury (OR 0.27, 95% CI = 0.10 to 0.72) and with higher scores on the Crisis Support Scale (OR 0.93, 95% CI] = 0.88 to 0.99), the odds of RTW between 2 and 12 months after injury were lower. Multiple imputation analysis found similar results, but those relating to crisis support did not remain statistically significant. Conclusion Primary care professionals can identify patients at risk of delayed RTW who may benefit from management of psychological morbidity and support to RTW.
The impact of psychological factors on recovery from injury: a multicentre cohort study
Purpose: Unintentional injuries have a significant long-term health impact in working age adults. Depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder are common post-injury, but their impact on self-reported recovery has not been investigated in general injury populations. This study investigated the role of psychological predictors 1 month post-injury in subsequent self-reported recovery from injury in working-aged adults. Methods: A multicentre cohort study was conducted of 668 unintentionally injured adults admitted to five UK hospitals followed up at 1, 2, 4 and 12 months post-injury. Logistic regression explored relationships between psychological morbidity 1 month post-injury and self-reported recovery 12 months post-injury, adjusting for health, demographic, injury and socio-legal factors. Multiple imputations were used to impute missing values. Results: A total of 668 adults participated at baseline, 77% followed up at 1 month and 63% at 12 months, of whom 383 (57%) were included in the main analysis. Multiple imputation analysis included all 668 participants. Increasing levels of depression scores and increasing levels of pain at 1 month and an increasing number of nights in hospital were associated with significantly reduced odds of recovery at 12 months, adjusting for age, sex, centre, employment and deprivation. The findings were similar in the multiple imputation analysis, except that pain had borderline statistical significance. Conclusions: Depression 1 month post-injury is an important predictor of recovery, but other factors, especially pain and nights spent in hospital, also predict recovery. Identifying and managing depression and providing adequate pain control are essential in clinical care post-injury.
Psychological morbidity and health-related quality of life after injury: multicentre cohort study
Purpose: To demonstrate the impact of psychological morbidity 1 month post-injury on subsequent post-injury quality of life (HRQoL) in a general injury population in the UK to inform development of trauma care and rehabilitation services. Methods: Multicentre cohort study of 16–70-year-olds admitted to 4 UK hospitals following injury. Psychological morbidity and HRQoL (EQ-5D-3L) were measured at recruitment and 1, 2, 4 and 12 months post-injury. A reduction in EQ-5D compared to retrospectively assessed pre-injury levels of at least 0.074 was taken as the minimal important difference (MID). Multilevel logistic regression explored relationships between psychological morbidity 1 month post-injury and MID in HRQoL over the 12 months after injury. Results: A total of 668 adults participated. Follow-up rates were 77% (1 month) and 63% (12 months). Substantial reductions in HRQoL were seen; 93% reported a MID at 1 month and 58% at 12 months. Problems with pain, mobility and usual activities were commonly reported at each time point. Depression and anxiety scores 1 month post-injury were independently associated with subsequent MID in HRQoL. The relationship between depression and HRQoL was partly explained by anxiety and to a lesser extent by pain and social functioning. The relationship between anxiety and HRQoL was not explained by factors measured in our study. Conclusions: Hospitalised injuries result in substantial reductions in HRQoL up to 12 months later. Depression and anxiety early in the recovery period are independently associated with lower HRQoL. Identifying and managing these problems, ensuring adequate pain control and facilitating social functioning are key elements in improving HRQoL post-injury.
Poison prevention practices and medically attended poisoning in young children: Multicentre case-control study
Introduction Childhood poisonings are common, placing a substantial burden on health services. Case- control studies have found inconsistent evidence about modifiable risk factors for poisonings among children aged 0-4 years. This study quantifies associations between poison prevention practices and medically attended poisonings in children aged 0-4 years. Methods Multicentre case-control study conducted at hospitals, minor injury units and family practices from four study centres in England between 2010 and 2013. Participants comprised 567 children presenting with unintentional poisoning occurring at home and 2320 community control participants matched on age, sex, date of event and study centre. Parents/caregivers provided data on safety practices, safety equipment use, home hazards and potential confounders by means of self-completion questionnaires. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression. Results Compared with community controls, parents of poisoned children were significantly more likely not to store medicines out of reach (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.59; 95% CI 1.21 to 2.09; population attributable fraction (PAF) 15%), not to store medicines safely (locked or out of reach (AOR 1.83; 95% CI 1.38 to 2.42; PAF 16%) and not to have put all medicines (AOR 2.11; 95% CI 1.54 to 2.90; PAF 20%) or household products (AOR 1.79, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.48; PAF 11%) away immediately after use. Conclusions Not storing medicines out of reach or locked away and not putting medicines and household products away immediately after use increased the odds of secondary care attended poisonings in children aged 0-4 years. If associations are causal, implementing these poison prevention practices could each prevent between 11% and 20% of poisonings.
Evaluating implementation of a fireprevention injury prevention briefing in children's centres: Cluster randomised controlled trial
Background Many developed countries have high mortality rates for fire-related deaths in children aged 0-14 years with steep social gradients. Evidence-based interventions to promote fire safety practices exist, but the impact of implementing a range of these interventions in children's services has not been assessed. We developed an Injury Prevention Briefing (IPB), which brought together evidence about effective fire safety interventions and good practice in delivering interventions; plus training and facilitation to support its use and evaluated its implementation. Methods We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated qualitative and costeffectiveness nested studies, across four study sites in England involving children's centres in disadvantaged areas; participants were staff and families attending those centres. Centres were stratified by study site and randomised within strata to one of three arms: IPB plus facilitation (IPB+), IPB only, usual care. IPB+ centres received initial training and facilitation at months 1, 3, and 8. Baseline data from children's centres were collected between August 2011 and January 2012 and follow-up data were collected between June 2012 and June 2013. Parent baseline data were collected between January 2012 and May 2012 and followup data between May 2013 and September 2013. Data comprised baseline and 12 month parent- and staff-completed questionnaires, facilitation contact data, activity logs and staff interviews. The primary outcome was whether families had a plan for escaping from a house fire. Treatment arms were compared using multilevel models to account for clustering by children's centre. Results 1112 parents at 36 children's centres participated. There was no significant effect of the intervention on families' possession of plans for escaping from a house fire (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) IPB only vs. usual care: 0.93, 95%CI 0.58, 1.49; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.41, 95%CI 0.91, 2.20). However, significantly more families in the intervention arms reported more behaviours for escaping from house fires (AOR IPB only vs. usual care: 2.56, 95%CI 01.38, 4.76; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.78, 95%CI 1.01, 3.15). Conclusion Our study demonstrated that children's centres can deliver an injury prevention intervention to families in disadvantaged communities and achieve changes in home safety behaviours.
The impact of injuries on health service resource use and costs in primary and secondary care in the English NHS
Background: Injuries in working age adults are common, but few studies examine NHS resource use or costs. Methods: Costing study based on a cohort of 16- to 70-year olds admitted to hospital following unintentional injury in NHS Trusts in four UK centres. Participants completed resource-use questionnaires up to 12 months post-injury. Primary and secondary care, aids, adaptations, appliances and prescribed medications were costed. Mean costs by injury type and age group and costs per clinical commissioning group (CCG) were estimated. Results: A total of 668 adults participated. Follow-up rates ranged from 77% at 1 month to 65% at 12 months. The mean cost of injuries over 12 months was £4691 per participant. Costs were highest for hip fractures (£5159), lower limb fractures (£4969) and multiple injuries (£4969). Secondary care accounted for 87% of mean costs across all injuries and primary care for 10%. The mean cost per CCG was £7.3 million (range £1.8 million-£25.6 million). The total cost across all English CCGs was £1.53 billion. Conclusions: Unintentional injuries in working age adults result in high levels of NHS resource use and costs in the year following injury. Commissioning effective injury prevention interventions may reduce these costs.
Modifiable risk factors for scald injury in children under 5 years of age: A Multi-centre Case–Control Study
Objective To determine the relationship between a range of modifiable risk factors and medically attended scalds in children under the age of 5 years. Methods Multicentre matched case–control study in acute hospitals, minor injury units and GP practices in four study centres in England. Cases comprised 338 children under 5 presenting with a scald, and 1438 control participants matched on age, gender, date of event and study centre. Parents/caregivers completed questionnaires on safety practices, safety equipment use, home hazards and potential confounders. Odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression. Results Parents of cases were significantly more likely than parents of controls to have left hot drinks within reach of their child (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.33, 95%CI 1.63 to 3.31; population attributable fraction (PAF) 31%). They were more likely not to have taught children rules about climbing on kitchen objects (AOR 1.66, 95%CI 1.12 to 2.47; PAF 20%); what to do or not do when parents are cooking (AOR 1.95, 95%CI 1.33 to 2.85; PAF 26%); and about hot things in the kitchen (AOR 1.89, 95%CI 1.30 to 2.75; PAF 26%). Conclusions Some scald injuries may be prevented by parents keeping hot drinks out of reach of children and by teaching children rules about not climbing on objects in the kitchen, what to do or not do whilst parents are cooking using the top of the cooker and about hot objects in the kitchen. Further studies, providing a more sophisticated exploration of the immediate antecedents of scalds are required to quantify associations between other hazards and behaviours and scalds in young children.
Risk and protective factors for falls on stairs in young children: Multicentre case-control study
Aim To investigate risk and protective factors for stair falls in children aged <5 years. Methods Multicentre case-control study at hospitals, minor injury units and general practices in and around four UK study centres. Cases were children with medically attended stair fall injuries. Controls were matched on age, sex, calendar time and study centre. A total of 610 cases and 2658 controls participated. Results Cases' most common injuries were bangs on the head (66%), cuts/grazes not requiring stitches (14%) and fractures (12%). Parents of cases were significantly more likely not to have stair gates (adjusted OR (AOR) 2.50, 95% CI 1.90 to 3.29; population attributable fraction (PAF) 21%) or to leave stair gates open (AOR 3.09, 95% CI 2.39 to 4.00; PAF 24%) both compared with having closed stair gates. They were more likely not to have carpeted stairs (AOR 1.52, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.10; PAF 5%) and not to have a landing part-way up their stairs (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.65; PAF 18%). They were more likely to consider their stairs unsafe to use (AOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99; PAF 5%) or to be in need of repair (AOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.50; PAF 5%). Conclusion Structural factors including having landings part-way up the stairs and keeping stairs in good repair were associated with reduced stair fall injury risk. Family factors including having stair gates, not leaving gates open and having stair carpets were associated with reduced injury risk. If these associations are causal, addressing these factors in housing policy and routine child health promotion could reduce stair fall injuries.
Cycling infrastructure for reducing cycling injuries in cyclists
Background: Cycling is an attractive form of transport. It is beneficial to the individual as a form of physical activity that may fit more readily into an individual's daily routine, such as for cycling to work and to the shops, than other physical activities such as visiting a gym. Cycling is also beneficial to the wider community and the environment as a result of fewer motorised journeys. Cyclists are seen as vulnerable road users who are frequently in close proximity to larger and faster motorised vehicles. Cycling infrastructure aims to make cycling both more convenient and safer for cyclists. This review is needed to guide transport planning. Objectives: To: 1. evaluate the effects of different types of cycling infrastructure on reducing cycling injuries in cyclists, by type of infrastructure; 2. evaluate the effects of cycling infrastructure on reducing the severity of cycling injuries in cyclists; 3. evaluate the effects of cycling infrastructure on reducing cycling injuries in cyclists with respect to age, sex and social group. Search methods: We ran the most recent search on 2nd March 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE (OvidSP), Embase Classic + Embase(OvidSP), PubMed and 10 other databases. We searched websites, handsearched conference proceedings, screened reference lists of included studies and previously published reviews and contacted relevant organisations. Selection criteria: We included randomised controlled trials, cluster randomised controlled trials, controlled before-after studies, and interrupted time series studies which evaluated the effect of cycling infrastructure (such as cycle lanes, tracks or paths, speed management, roundabout design) on cyclist injury or collision rates. Studies had to include a comparator, that is, either no infrastructure or a different type of infrastructure. We excluded studies that assessed collisions that occurred as a result of competitive cycling. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors examined the titles and abstracts of papers obtained from searches to determine eligibility. Two review authors extracted data from the included trials and assessed the risk of bias. We carried out a meta-analysis using the random-effects model where at least three studies reported the same intervention and outcome. Where there were sufficient studies, as a secondary analysis we accounted for changes in cyclist exposure in the calculation of the rate ratios. We rated the quality of the evidence as 'high', 'moderate', 'low' or 'very low' according to the GRADE approach for the installation of cycle routes and networks. Main results: We identified 21 studies for inclusion in the review: 20 controlled before-after (CBA) studies and one interrupted time series (ITS) study. These evaluated a range of infrastructure including cycle lanes, advanced stop lines, use of colour, cycle tracks, cycle paths, management of the road network, speed management, cycle routes and networks, roundabout design and packages of measures. No studies reported medically-attended or self-reported injuries. There was no evidence that cycle lanes reduce the rate of cycle collisions (rate ratio 1.21, 95% CI 0.70 to 2.08). Taking into account cycle flow, there was no difference in collisions for cyclists using cycle routes and networks compared with cyclists not using cycle routes and networks (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.05). There was statistically significant heterogeneity between the studies (I2 = 75%, Chi2 = 8.00 df = 2, P = 0.02) for the analysis adjusted for cycle flow. We judged the quality of the evidence regarding cycle routes and networks as very low and we are very uncertain about the estimate. These analyses are based on findings from CBA studies. From data presented narratively, the use of 20 mph speed restrictions in urban areas may be effective at reducing cyclist collisions. Redesigning specific parts of cycle routes that may be particularly busy or complex in terms of traffic movement may be beneficial to cyclists in terms of reducing the risk of collision. Generally, the conversion of intersections to roundabouts may increase the number of cycle collisions. In particular, the conversion of intersections to roundabouts with cycle lanes marked as part of the circulating carriageway increased cycle collisions. However, the conversion of intersections with and without signals to roundabouts with cycle paths may reduce the odds of collision. Both continuing a cycle lane across the mouth of a side road with a give way line onto the main road, and cycle tracks, may increase the risk of injury collisions in cyclists. However, these conclusions are uncertain, being based on a narrative review of findings from included studies. There is a lack of evidence that cycle paths or advanced stop lines either reduce or increase injury collisions in cyclists. There is also insufficient evidence to draw any robust conclusions concerning the effect of cycling infrastructure on cycling collisions in terms of severity of injury, sex, age, and level of social deprivation of the casualty. In terms of quality of the evidence, there was little matching of intervention and control sites. In many studies, the comparability of the control area to the intervention site was unclear and few studies provided information on other cycling infrastructures that may be in place in the control and intervention areas. The majority of studies analysed data routinely collected by organisations external to the study team, thus reducing the risk of bias in terms of systematic differences in assessing outcomes between the control and intervention groups. Some authors did not take regression-to-mean effects into account when examining changes in collisions. Longer data collection periods pre-and post-installation would allow for regression-to-mean effects and also seasonal and time trends in traffic volume to be observed. Few studies adjusted cycle collision rates for exposure. Authors' conclusions: Generally, there is a lack of high quality evidence to be able to draw firm conclusions as to the effect of cycling infrastructure on cycling collisions. There is a lack of rigorous evaluation of cycling infrastructure.
Risk and protective factors for falls on one level in young children: Multicentre case–control study
Background Childhood falls are an important global public health problem, but there is lack of evidence about their prevention. Falls on one level result in considerable morbidity and they are costly to health services. Objective To estimate ORs for falls on one level in children aged 0–4 years for a range of safety behaviours, safety equipment use and home hazards. Design, setting and participants Multicentre case–control study at hospitals, minor injury units and general practices in and around four UK study centres. Participants included 582 children less than 5 years of age with a medically attended fall injury occurring at home and 2460 controls matched on age, sex, calendar time and study centre. Main outcome measure Fall on one level. Results Cases’ most common injuries were bangs on the head (52%), cuts or grazes not needing stitches (29%) or cuts or grazes needing stitches (17%). Comparing cases to community controls in the adjusted analyses, significant findings were observed for only two exposures. Injured children were significantly less likely to live in a household without furniture corner covers (adjusted OR (AOR) 0.72, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.95), or without rugs and carpets firmly fixed to the floor (AOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.98). Conclusions We did not find any safety practices, use of safety equipment or home hazards associated with a reduced risk of fall on one level. Our findings do not provide evidence to support changes to current injury prevention practice.
Influenza vaccination and risk of stroke: Self-controlled case-series study
Background: Stroke may be triggered by respiratory infections, including influenza. Influenza vaccination could therefore reduce risk of stroke. Previous studies of this association have shown conflicting results. We aimed to investigate whether influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk of stroke. Methods: We used a self-controlled case series design. The General Practice Research Database (GPRD) was used to extract records of patients aged 18 years or over recorded with stroke (fatal or non-fatal) from September 2001 to May 2009. Statistical modelling with conditional Poisson regression was employed to compute incidence rate ratios (IRR). The incidence rate of stroke in fixed time periods after influenza vaccination was compared with the incidence rate during a baseline period. Results: There were 17,853 eligible individuals who received one or more influenza vaccinations and experienced a stroke during the observation period. The incidence of stroke was significantly reduced in the first 59 days following influenza vaccination compared with the baseline period. We found reductions of 55% (IRR 0.45; 95% CI 0.36-0.57) in the first 1-3 days after vaccination, 36% (0.64; 0.53-0.76) at 4-7 days, 30% (0.70; 0.61-0.79) at 8-14 days, 24% (0.76; 0.70-0.84) at 15-28 days and 17% (0.83; 0.77-0.89) at 29-59 days after vaccination. Early vaccination between 1 September and 15 November showed a greater reduction in IRR compared to later vaccination given after mid-November. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination is associated with a reduction in incidence of stroke. This study supports previous studies which have shown a beneficial association of influenza vaccination for stroke prevention.
Risk and protective factors for falls from furniture in young children multicenter case-control study
IMPORTANCE: Falls from furniture are common in young children but there is little evidence on protective factors for these falls. OBJECTIVE: To estimate associations for risk and protective factors for falls from furniture in children aged 0 to 4 years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter case-control study at hospitals, minor injury units, and general practices in and around 4 UK study centers. Recruitment commenced June 14, 2010, and ended April 27, 2012. Participants included 672 children with falls from furniture and 2648 control participants matched on age, sex, calendar time, and study center. Thirty-five percent of cases and 33%of control individuals agreed to participate. The mean age was 1.74 years for cases and 1.91 years for control participants. Fifty-four percent of cases and 56%of control participants were male. Exposures included safety practices, safety equipment use, and home hazards. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Falls from furniture occurring at the child's home resulting in attendance at an emergency department, minor injury unit, or hospital admission. RESULTS: Compared with parents of control participants, parents of cases were significantly more likely not to use safety gates in the home (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.65; 95%CI, 1.29-2.12) and not to have taught their children rules about climbing on kitchen objects (AOR, 1.58; 95%CI, 1.16-2.15). Cases aged 0 to 12 months were significantly more likely to have been left on raised surfaces (AOR, 5.62; 95%CI, 3.62-8.72), had their diapers changed on raised surfaces (AOR, 1.89; 95%CI, 1.24-2.88), and been put in car/bouncing seats on raised surfaces (AOR, 2.05; 95%CI, 1.29-3.27). Cases 3 years and older were significantly more likely to have played or climbed on furniture (AOR, 9.25; 95%CI, 1.22-70.07). Cases were significantly less likely to have played or climbed on garden furniture (AOR, 0.74; 95%CI, 0.56-0.97). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: If estimated associations are causal, some falls from furniture may be prevented by incorporating advice into child health contacts, personal child health records, and home safety assessments about use of safety gates; not leaving children, changing diapers, or putting children in car/bouncing seats on raised surfaces; allowing children to play or climb on furniture; and teaching children safety rules about climbing on objects.
Validation of a home safety questionnaire used in a series of case-control studies
Conclusions This study found that the validity of selfreports varied with safety practice. Questions with a high specificity will be useful for practitioners for identifying households who may benefit from home safety interventions and will be useful for researchers as measures of exposures or outcomes.