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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
Analysis
Qualitative analysis seeks to develop analytic categories to describe and explain social phenomena. These categories may be derived inductively - that is, obtained gradually from the data themselves - or generated deductively from prior questions or hypotheses, either at the beginning or at intervals during the analysis. There are four broad approaches to qualitative analysis: thematic analysis; grounded theory; interpretive phenomenological analysis; and the ‘framework’ approach. This chapter describes these four broad approaches that are used in health related research. Sometimes techniques from different analytical approaches are combined to understand the data better. The use of specialist computer-assisted qualitative data analysis software (CAQDAS) packages has become much more common in qualitative research. CAQDAS packages offer functions that enable far more complex organisation, annotation, data linkage, and retrieval of data than are possible in standard word processing packages.
Could expanding the covid-19 case definition improve the UK’s pandemic response?
Response to Crozier et al's publication https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1625
plaTform fOr Urinary tract infection diagnostiC evAluatioN (TOUCAN): a protocol for a prospective diagnostic accuracy study of point-of-care testing in patients suspected of acute uncomplicated urinary tract infection in primary care clinics in England.
INTRODUCTION: Acute uncomplicated urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common condition with potentially serious sequelae that is mostly diagnosed and managed in primary care settings. Around half of all women have a UTI in their lifetime, and a quarter experience an infection caused by organisms resistant to more than one antibiotic. Reducing inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics is a core tenet of antimicrobial stewardship. However, current diagnostics for UTI are unfit for purpose in acute (highest prescribing) settings, being too slow to inform the required immediate decision-making and often confounded by sample contamination.Rapid point-of-care diagnostic tests (POCTs) that facilitate timely decision-making are potential solutions to this problem. Several such tests have reached advanced stages of technology readiness, but their diagnostic performance has not been evaluated in primary care with clinical users. To progress novel tests towards implementation, a diagnostic field study is required, to allow for parallel and sequential evaluation of multiple tests in a primary care population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will recruit participants assigned female at birth from primary care clinics in England who contact their clinic with symptoms of acute uncomplicated UTI. Eligible participants will complete a short questionnaire to capture symptoms and symptom severity and will provide a urine sample. Samples will be split and initially tested using novel index tests (POCTs) and conventional urinalysis 'dipstick' at the primary care clinic. The second part of the sample will be processed at a National Health Service-based reference laboratory using a modified reference standard including microscopy, microbiological culture, pathogen speciation and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. The UTI reference standard culture, although based on the national methods, is modified to provide accurate bacterial counts, better to define a microbiological diagnosis of UTI. Susceptibility testing will be performed using 'gold-standard' methods, not usually performed in diagnostic laboratories. The primary outcome will be the diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values) of POCTs for detection of UTI and antimicrobial susceptibility for POCTs that include antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Secondary outcomes will include the symptom profile of patients presenting with uncomplicated UTI, a theoretical determination of how use of POCT results might change prescribing, an understanding of POCT failure rate and qualitative capture of the experiences of those using the POCT to deliver the study in primary care clinics. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was received from the London Central Research Ethics Committee (23/LO/0371) and the UK Health Research Authority. We will publish the findings of The plaTform fOr Urinary tract infection diagnostiC evAluatioN evaluations in peer-reviewed medical journals and more broadly following a dissemination plan formulated by a communications specialist in consultation with patients and the public. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN80937472.
Seasonal trends in antidepressant prescribing, depression, anxiety and self-harm in adolescents and young adults: an open cohort study using English primary care data
Background There is an increasing demand for mental health services for young people, which may vary across the year. Objective To determine whether there are seasonal patterns in primary care antidepressant prescribing and mental health issues in adolescents and young adults. Methods This cohort study used anonymised electronic health records from general practices in England contributing to QResearch. It included 5 081 263 males and females aged 14–18 (adolescents), 19–23 and 24–28 years between 2006 and 2019. The incidence rates per 1000 person-years and the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for the first records of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) prescription, depression, anxiety and self-harm. The IRRs were adjusted for year, region, deprivation, ethnic group and number of working days. Findings There was an increase in SSRI prescribing, depression and anxiety incidence in male and female adolescents in the autumn months (September–November) that was not seen in older age groups. The IRRs for SSRI prescribing for adolescents peaked in November (females: 1.75, 95% CI 1.67 to 1.83, p<0.001; males: 1.72, 95% CI 1.61 to 1.84, p<0.001, vs in January) and for depression (females: 1.29, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.33, p<0.001; males: 1.29, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.35, p<0.001). Anxiety peaked in November for females aged 14–18 years (1.17, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.22, p<0.001) and in September for males (1.19, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.27, p<0.001). Conclusions There were higher rates of antidepressant prescribing and consultations for depression and anxiety at the start of the school year among adolescents. Clinical implications Support around mental health issues from general practitioners and others should be focused during autumn.
Preexisting Neuropsychiatric Conditions and Associated Risk of Severe COVID-19 Infection and Other Acute Respiratory Infections
ImportanceEvidence indicates that preexisting neuropsychiatric conditions confer increased risks of severe outcomes from COVID-19 infection. It is unclear how this increased risk compares with risks associated with other severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs).ObjectiveTo determine whether preexisting diagnosis of and/or treatment for a neuropsychiatric condition is associated with severe outcomes from COVID-19 infection and other SARIs and whether any observed association is similar between the 2 outcomes.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsPrepandemic (2015-2020) and contemporary (2020-2021) longitudinal cohorts were derived from the QResearch database of English primary care records. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 99% CIs were estimated in April 2022 using flexible parametric survival models clustered by primary care clinic. This study included a population-based sample, including all adults in the database who had been registered with a primary care clinic for at least 1 year. Analysis of routinely collected primary care electronic medical records was performed.ExposuresDiagnosis of and/or medication for anxiety, mood, or psychotic disorders and diagnosis of dementia, depression, schizophrenia, or bipolar disorder.Main Outcomes and MeasuresCOVID-19–related mortality, or hospital or intensive care unit admission; SARI-related mortality, or hospital or intensive care unit admission.ResultsThe prepandemic cohort comprised 11 134 789 adults (223 569 SARI cases [2.0%]) with a median (IQR) age of 42 (29-58) years, of which 5 644 525 (50.7%) were female. The contemporary cohort comprised 8 388 956 adults (58 203 severe COVID-19 cases [0.7%]) with a median (IQR) age of 48 (34-63) years, of which 4 207 192 were male (50.2%). Diagnosis and/or treatment for neuropsychiatric conditions other than dementia was associated with an increased likelihood of a severe outcome from SARI (anxiety diagnosis: HR, 1.16; 99% CI, 1.13-1.18; psychotic disorder diagnosis and treatment: HR, 2.56; 99% CI, 2.40-2.72) and COVID-19 (anxiety diagnosis: HR, 1.16; 99% CI, 1.12-1.20; psychotic disorder treatment: HR, 2.37; 99% CI, 2.20-2.55). The effect estimate for severe outcome with dementia was higher for those with COVID-19 than SARI (HR, 2.85; 99% CI, 2.71-3.00 vs HR, 2.13; 99% CI, 2.07-2.19).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this longitudinal cohort study, UK patients with preexisting neuropsychiatric conditions and treatments were associated with similarly increased risks of severe outcome from COVID-19 infection and SARIs, except for dementia.
Ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes: a multinational cohort study of 20 million individuals from England and Canada
Background: Heterogeneous studies have demonstrated ethnic inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse COVID-19 outcomes. This study evaluates the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in two large population-based cohorts from England and Canada and investigates potential explanatory factors for ethnic patterning of severe outcomes. Methods: We identified adults aged 18 to 99 years in the QResearch primary care (England) and Ontario (Canada) healthcare administrative population-based datasets (start of follow-up: 24th and 25th Jan 2020 in England and Canada, respectively; end of follow-up: 31st Oct and 30th Sept 2020, respectively). We harmonised the definitions and the design of two cohorts to investigate associations between ethnicity and COVID-19-related death, hospitalisation, and intensive care (ICU) admission, adjusted for confounders, and combined the estimates obtained from survival analyses. We calculated the ‘percentage of excess risk mediated’ by these risk factors in the QResearch cohort. Results: There were 9.83 million adults in the QResearch cohort (11,597 deaths; 21,917 hospitalisations; 2932 ICU admissions) and 10.27 million adults in the Ontario cohort (951 deaths; 5132 hospitalisations; 1191 ICU admissions). Compared to the general population, pooled random-effects estimates showed that South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (hazard ratio: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.09-2.44), hospitalisation (1.53; 1.32-1.76), and ICU admission (1.67; 1.23-2.28). Associations with ethnic groups were consistent across levels of deprivation. In QResearch, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors accounted for 42.9% (South Asian) and 39.4% (Black) of the excess risk of COVID-19 death. Conclusion: International population-level analyses demonstrate clear ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 risks. Policymakers should be cognisant of the increased risks in some ethnic populations and design equitable health policy as the pandemic continues.
The risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people prescribed mirtazapine: an active comparator cohort study using electronic health records
Background: Studies have reported an increased risk of mortality among people prescribed mirtazapine compared to other antidepressants. The study aimed to compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality between adults prescribed mirtazapine or other second-line antidepressants. Methods: This cohort study used English primary care electronic medical records, hospital admission records, and mortality data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), for the period 01 January 2005 to 30 November 2018. It included people aged 18–99 years with depression first prescribed a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) and then prescribed mirtazapine (5081), a different SSRI (15,032), amitriptyline (3905), or venlafaxine (1580). Follow-up was from starting to stopping the second antidepressant, with a 6-month wash-out window, censoring at the end of CPRD follow-up or 30 November 2018. Age-sex standardised rates of all-cause mortality and death due to circulatory system disease, cancer, or respiratory system disease were calculated. Survival analyses were performed, accounting for baseline characteristics using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results: The cohort contained 25,598 people (median age 41 years). The mirtazapine group had the highest standardised mortality rate, with an additional 7.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9–9.7) deaths/1000 person-years compared to the SSRI group. Within 2 years of follow-up, the risk of all-cause mortality was statistically significantly higher in the mirtazapine group than in the SSRI group (weighted hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% CI 1.28–2.06). No significant difference was found between the mirtazapine group and the amitriptyline (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.85–1.63) or venlafaxine (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.60–2.05) groups. After 2 years, the risk was significantly higher in the mirtazapine group compared to the SSRI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.04–2.19), amitriptyline (HR 2.59, 95% CI 1.38–4.86), and venlafaxine (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.02–5.44) groups. The risks of death due to cancer (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.06–2.85) and respiratory system disease (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.07–2.77) were significantly higher in the mirtazapine than in the SSRI group. Conclusions: Mortality was higher in people prescribed mirtazapine than people prescribed a second SSRI, possibly reflecting residual differences in other risk factors between the groups. Identifying these potential health risks when prescribing mirtazapine may help reduce the risk of mortality.
Common protocol for validation of the QCOVID algorithm across the four UK nations
Introduction The QCOVID algorithm is a risk prediction tool for infection and subsequent hospitalisation/death due to SARS-CoV-2. At the time of writing, it is being used in important policy-making decisions by the UK and devolved governments for combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, including deliberations on shielding and vaccine prioritisation. There are four statistical validations exercises currently planned for the QCOVID algorithm, using data pertaining to England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, respectively. This paper presents a common procedure for conducting and reporting on validation exercises for the QCOVID algorithm. Methods and analysis We will use open, retrospective cohort studies to assess the performance of the QCOVID risk prediction tool in each of the four UK nations. Linked datasets comprising of primary and secondary care records, virological testing data and death registrations will be assembled in trusted research environments in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. We will seek to have population level coverage as far as possible within each nation. The following performance metrics will be calculated by strata: Harrell's C, Brier Score, R 2 and Royston's D. Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from relevant ethics bodies in each UK nation. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journal.
Preexisting Neuropsychiatric Conditions and Associated Risk of Severe COVID-19 Infection and Other Acute Respiratory Infections
Importance: Evidence indicates that preexisting neuropsychiatric conditions confer increased risks of severe outcomes from COVID-19 infection. It is unclear how this increased risk compares with risks associated with other severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs). Objective: To determine whether preexisting diagnosis of and/or treatment for a neuropsychiatric condition is associated with severe outcomes from COVID-19 infection and other SARIs and whether any observed association is similar between the 2 outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prepandemic (2015-2020) and contemporary (2020-2021) longitudinal cohorts were derived from the QResearch database of English primary care records. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 99% CIs were estimated in April 2022 using flexible parametric survival models clustered by primary care clinic. This study included a population-based sample, including all adults in the database who had been registered with a primary care clinic for at least 1 year. Analysis of routinely collected primary care electronic medical records was performed. Exposures: Diagnosis of and/or medication for anxiety, mood, or psychotic disorders and diagnosis of dementia, depression, schizophrenia, or bipolar disorder. Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19-related mortality, or hospital or intensive care unit admission; SARI-related mortality, or hospital or intensive care unit admission. Results: The prepandemic cohort comprised 11134789 adults (223569 SARI cases [2.0%]) with a median (IQR) age of 42 (29-58) years, of which 5644525 (50.7%) were female. The contemporary cohort comprised 8388956 adults (58203 severe COVID-19 cases [0.7%]) with a median (IQR) age of 48 (34-63) years, of which 4207192 were male (50.2%). Diagnosis and/or treatment for neuropsychiatric conditions other than dementia was associated with an increased likelihood of a severe outcome from SARI (anxiety diagnosis: HR, 1.16; 99% CI, 1.13-1.18; psychotic disorder diagnosis and treatment: HR, 2.56; 99% CI, 2.40-2.72) and COVID-19 (anxiety diagnosis: HR, 1.16; 99% CI, 1.12-1.20; psychotic disorder treatment: HR, 2.37; 99% CI, 2.20-2.55). The effect estimate for severe outcome with dementia was higher for those with COVID-19 than SARI (HR, 2.85; 99% CI, 2.71-3.00 vs HR, 2.13; 99% CI, 2.07-2.19). Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cohort study, UK patients with preexisting neuropsychiatric conditions and treatments were associated with similarly increased risks of severe outcome from COVID-19 infection and SARIs, except for dementia.
Association between mirtazapine use and serious self-harm in people with depression: an active comparator cohort study using UK electronic health records
Background Studies report an increased risk of self-harm or suicide in people prescribed mirtazapine compared with other antidepressants. Objectives To compare the risk of serious self-harm in people prescribed mirtazapine versus other antidepressants as second-line treatments. Design and setting Cohort study using anonymised English primary care electronic health records, hospital admission data and mortality data with study window 1 January 2005 to 30 November 2018. Participants 24 516 people diagnosed with depression, aged 18-99 years, initially prescribed a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) and then prescribed mirtazapine, a different SSRI, amitriptyline or venlafaxine. Main outcome measures Hospitalisation or death due to deliberate self-harm. Age-sex standardised rates were calculated and survival analyses were performed using inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for baseline covariates. Results Standardised rates of serious self-harm ranged from 3.8/1000 person-years (amitriptyline) to 14.1/1000 person-years (mirtazapine). After weighting, the risk of serious self-harm did not differ significantly between the mirtazapine group and the SSRI or venlafaxine groups (HRs (95% CI) 1.18 (0.84 to 1.65) and 0.85 (0.51 to 1.41) respectively). The risk was significantly higher in the mirtazapine than the amitriptyline group (3.04 (1.36 to 6.79)) but was attenuated after adjusting for dose. Conclusions There was no evidence for a difference in risk between mirtazapine and SSRIs or venlafaxine after accounting for baseline characteristics. The higher risk in the mirtazapine versus the amitriptyline group might reflect residual confounding if amitriptyline is avoided in people considered at risk of self-harm. Clinical implications Addressing baseline risk factors and careful monitoring might improve outcomes for people at risk of serious self-harm.
An evidence-based approach to the use of telehealth in long-term health conditions: development of an intervention and evaluation through pragmatic randomised controlled trials in patients with depression or raised cardiovascular risk
BackgroundHealth services internationally are exploring the potential of telehealth to support the management of the growing number of people with long-term conditions (LTCs).AimTo develop, implement and evaluate new care programmes for patients with LTCs, focusing on two common LTCs as exemplars: depression or high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.MethodsDevelopmentWe synthesised quantitative and qualitative evidence on the effectiveness of telehealth for LTCs, conducted a qualitative study based on interviews with patients and staff and undertook a postal survey to explore which patients are interested in different forms of telehealth. Based on these studies we developed a conceptual model [TElehealth in CHronic disease (TECH) model] as a framework for the development and evaluation of the Healthlines Service for patients with LTCs.ImplementationThe Healthlines Service consisted of regular telephone calls to participants from health information advisors, supporting them to make behaviour change and to use tailored online resources. Advisors sought to optimise participants’ medication and to improve adherence.EvaluationThe Healthlines Service was evaluated with linked pragmatic randomised controlled trials comparing the Healthlines Service plus usual care with usual care alone, with nested process and economic evaluations. Participants were adults with depression or raised CVD risk recruited from 43 general practices in three areas of England. The primary outcome was response to treatment and the secondary outcomes included anxiety (depression trial), individual risk factors (CVD risk trial), self-management skills, medication adherence, perceptions of support, access to health care and satisfaction with treatment.Trial resultsDepression trialIn total, 609 participants were randomised and the retention rate was 86%. Response to treatment [Patient Health Questionnaire 9-items (PHQ-9) reduction of ≥ 5 points and score of < 10 after 4 months] was higher in the intervention group (27%, 68/255) than in the control group (19%, 50/270) [odds ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1 to 2.5;p = 0.02]. Anxiety also improved. Intervention participants reported better access to health support, greater satisfaction with treatment and small improvements in self-management, but not improved medication adherence.CVD risk trialIn total, 641 participants were randomised and the retention rate was 91%. Response to treatment (maintenance of/reduction in QRISK®2 score after 12 months) was higher in the intervention group (50%, 148/295) than in the control group (43%, 124/291), which does not exclude a null effect (odds ratio 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.9;p = 0.08). The intervention was associated with small improvements in blood pressure and weight, but not smoking or cholesterol. Intervention participants were more likely to adhere to medication, reported better access to health support and greater satisfaction with treatment, but few improvements in self-management.The Healthlines Service was likely to be cost-effective for CVD risk, particularly if the benefits are sustained, but not for depression. The intervention was implemented largely as planned, although initial delays and later disruption to delivery because of the closure of NHS Direct may have adversely affected participant engagement.ConclusionThe Healthlines Service, designed using an evidence-based conceptual model, provided modest health benefits and participants valued the better access to care and extra support provided. This service was cost-effective for CVD risk but not depression. These findings of small benefits at extra cost are consistent with previous pragmatic research on the implementation of comprehensive telehealth programmes for LTCs.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN14172341 (depression trial) and ISRCTN27508731 (CVD risk trial).FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.