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We lead multidisciplinary applied research and training to rethink the way health care is delivered in general practice and across the community.
What Drives Responses to Willingness-to-pay Questions? A Methodological Inquiry in the Context of Hypertension Self-management.
Background: The use of economic evaluation to determine the cost-effectiveness of health interventions is recommended by decision-making bodies internationally. Understanding factors that explain variations in costs and benefits is important for policy makers. Objective: This work aimed to test a priori hypotheses defining the relationship between benefits of using self-management equipment (measured using the willingness-to-pay (WTP) approach) and a number of demographic and other patient factors. Methods: Data for this study were collected as part of the first major randomised controlled trial of self-monitoring combined with self-titration in hypertension (TASMINH2). A contingent valuation framework was used with patients asked to indicate how much they were willing to pay for equipment used for self-managing hypertension. Descriptive statistics, simple statistical tests of differences and multivariate regression were used to test six a priori hypotheses. Results: 393 hypertensive patients (204 in the intervention and 189 in the control) were willing to pay for self-management equipment and 85% of these (335) provided positive WTP values. Three hypotheses were accepted: higher WTP values were associated with being male, higher household incomes and satisfaction with the equipment. Prior experiences of using this equipment, age and changes in blood pressure were not significantly related to WTP. Conclusion: The majority of hypertensive patients who had taken part in a self-management study were prepared to purchase the self-monitoring equipment using their own funds, more so for men, those with higher incomes and those with greater satisfaction. Further research based on bigger and more diverse populations is recommended.
Use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents in stable outpatients with coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation. International CLARIFY registry
Background Few data are available regarding the use of antithrombotic strategies in coronary artery disease patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in everyday practice. We sought to describe the prevalence of AF and its antithrombotic management in a contemporary population of patients with stable coronary artery disease. Methods and Findings CLARIFY is an international, prospective, longitudinal registry of outpatients with stable coronary artery disease, defined as prior (≥12 months) myocardial infarction, revascularization procedure, coronary stenosis >50%, or chest pain associated with evidence of myocardial ischemia. Overall, 33,428 patients were screened, of whom 32,954 had data available for analysis at baseline; of these 2,229 (6.7%) had a history of AF. Median (interquartile range) CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4 (3, 5). Oral anticoagulation alone was used in 25.7%, antiplatelet therapy alone in 52.8% (single 41.8%, dual 11.0%), and both in 21.5%. OAC use was independently associated with permanent AF (p<0.001), CHA2DS2-VASc score (p=0.006), pacemaker (p<0.001), stroke (p=0.04), absence of angina (p=0.004), decreased left ventricular ejection fraction (p<0.001), increased waist circumference (p=0.005), and longer history of coronary artery disease (p=0.008). History of percutaneous coronary intervention (p=0.004) and no/partial reimbursement for cardiovascular medication (p=0.01, p<0.001, respectively) were associated with reduced oral anticoagulant use. Conclusions In this contemporary cohort of patients with stable coronary artery disease and AF, most of whom are theoretical candidates for anticoagulation, oral anticoagulants were used in only 47.2%. Half of the patients received antiplatelet therapy alone and one-fifth received both antiplatelets and oral anticoagulants. Efforts are needed to improve adherence to guidelines in these patients.
Co-design and evaluation of a youth-informed organisational tool to enhance trauma-informed practices in the UK public sector: a study protocol
IntroductionA trauma-informed approach (TIA) means working with awareness that people’s histories of trauma may shape the way they engage with services, organisations or institutions. Young people with adverse childhood experiences may be at risk of retraumatisation by organisational practices in schools and universities and by employers and health agencies when they seek support. There are limited evidence-based resources to help people working in the public sector to work with adolescents in trauma-informed ways and the needs of adolescents have not been central in resource development. This study contributes to public sector capacity to work in trauma-informed ways with adolescents by codesigning and evaluating the implementation of a youth-informed organisational resource.Methods and analysisThis is an Accelerated Experience-based Co-design (AEBCD) Study followed by pre–post evaluation. Public sector organisations or services, and adolescents connected with them, will collaboratively reflect on lived experience data assembled through creative arts practice, alongside data from epidemiological national data sets. These will present knowledge about the impact of adverse childhood experiences on adolescents’ mental health (stage 1). Collaboratively, priorities (touch points) for organisational responses will be identified (stage 2), and a low-burden resource will be codesigned (stage 3) and offered for implementation (stage 4) and evaluation (stage 5) in diverse settings. The study will provide insights into what adolescents and public sector organisations in the UK want from a TIA resource, the experience of services/organisations in implementing this and recommendations for resource development and implementation.Ethics and disseminationThe UK National Health Service Health Research Authority approved this study (23/WM/0105). Learning will be shared across study participants in a workshop at the end of the study. Knowledge products will include a website detailing the created resource and a youth-created film documenting the study process, the elements of the codesigned resource and experiences of implementation. Dissemination will target academic, healthcare, education, social care, third sector and local government settings via knowledge exchange events, social media, accessible briefings, conference presentations and publications.
A Prognostic Model for Critically Ill Children in Locations With Emerging Critical Care Capacity
OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction model to risk stratify children admitted to PICUs in locations with limited resources, and compare performance of the model to nine existing pediatric severity scores. DESIGN: Retrospective, single-center, cohort study. SETTING: PICU of a pediatric hospital in Siem Reap, northern Cambodia. PATIENTS: Children between 28 days and 16 years old admitted nonelectively to the PICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Clinical and laboratory data recorded at the time of PICU admission were collected. The primary outcome was death during PICU admission. One thousand five hundred fifty consecutive non-elective PICU admissions were included, of which 97 died (6.3%). Most existing severity scores achieved comparable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUCs], 0.71-0.76) but only three scores demonstrated moderate diagnostic utility for triaging admissions into high- and low-risk groups (positive likelihood ratios [PLRs], 2.65-2.97 and negative likelihood ratios [NLRs], 0.40-0.46). The newly derived model outperformed all existing severity scores (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.88; p < 0.001). Using one particular threshold, the model classified 13.0% of admissions as high risk, among which probability of mortality was almost ten-fold greater than admissions triaged as low-risk (PLR, 5.75; 95% CI, 4.57-7.23 and NLR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.37-0.59). Decision curve analyses indicated that the model would be superior to all existing severity scores and could provide utility across the range of clinically plausible decision thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Existing pediatric severity scores have limited potential as risk stratification tools in resource-constrained PICUs. If validated, our prediction model would be a readily implementable mechanism to support triage of critically ill children at admission to PICU and could provide value across a variety of contexts where resource prioritization is important.
Do children with disabilities have the same opportunities to play as children without disabilities? Evidence from the multiple indicator cluster surveys in 38 low and middle-income countries
Background: Play is essential for the cognitive, social, and emotional development of all children. Disparities potentially exist in access to play for children with disabilities, and the extent of this inequity is unknown. Methods: Data from 212,194 children aged 2–4 years in 38 Low and Middle-Income Countries were collected in the UNICEF supported Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2017–2020). Disability was assessed by the Washington Group-Child Functioning Module. Logistic regression models were applied to investigate the relationship between disability and play opportunities, controlling for age, sex, and wealth status. Meta-analysis was used to pool the estimates (overall, and disaggregated by sex), with heterogeneity assessed by Cochran's Q test. Findings: Children with disabilities have approximately 9% fewer play opportunities than those without disabilities (adjusted RR [aRR] = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.82–0.93), and this varied across countries. Mongolia and Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe had the lowest likelihood of play opportunities for children with disabilities ((aRR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.09–0.75; aRR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.23–0.93, respectively). Moreover, children with disabilities are 17% less likely to be provided with opportunities to play with their mothers (aRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.73–0.93), which is further reduced for girls with disabilities (aRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.60–0.90) compared to their peers without disabilities. The associations varied by impairment type, and children with communication and learning impairments are less likely to have opportunities for play with aRR of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.60–0.79) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71–0.86), compared to those without disabilities, respectively. Interpretation: Children with disabilities are being left behind in their access to play and this is likely to have negative impacts on their overall development and well-being. Funding: HK and TS are funded by HK's NIHR Global Research Professorship (NIHR301621). SR is funded by a Rhodes Scholarship. This study was funded by the Programme for Evidence to Inform Disability Action (PENDA) grant from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
Video consulting for GP trainees
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a dramatic shift towards remote and digital consulting in general practice. Supported by the wider political policy for ‘Digital-First’ primary care, many practices began offering a wider range of consultation modalities, including online, telephone and video options. Since the COVID-19 pandemic the proportion of appointments carried out remotely has slightly decreased, but still makes up a significant proportion of appointments. According to the latest data from NHS Digital, over a million video and online consultations took place in 2023 (the data does not differentiate between them). Video consulting is used more often in out-of-hours settings and for nursing home ward rounds. Remote consulting requires specific consultation skills, some interchangeable with other modes of consulting, and all important for future practice.
Rugby (the religion of Wales) and its influence on the Catholic church: should Pope Benedict XVI be worried?
OBJECTIVE: To explore the perceived wisdom that papal mortality is related to the success of the Welsh rugby union team. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study of historical Vatican and sporting data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Papal deaths between 1883 and the present day. RESULTS: There is no evidence of a link between papal deaths and any home nation grand slams (when one nation succeeds in beating all other competing teams in every match). There was, however, weak statistical evidence to support an association between Welsh performance and the number of papal deaths. CONCLUSION: Given the dominant Welsh performances of 2008, the Vatican medical team should take special care of the pontiff this Christmas.
How and why are video consultations used in urgent primary care settings in the UK? A focus group study
Background: Video consulting was widely rolled out across general practice at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the in-hours setting there has been a marked shift away from using the technology, but many urgent care clinicians continue to use video consulting. Little is known about the reasons behind this discrepancy. Aim: To understand how and why video is used in urgent care settings. Design & setting: Focus groups were held via Microsoft Teams with 11 GPs working in in- and out-of hours settings across the UK. Method: GPs were recruited through a convienience sampling strategy. Meetings were recorded, auto-transcribed, and checked for accuracy. A thematic analysis was performed. Results: Urgent care GPs used video as an adjunct to the telephone in the initial assessment of patients and felt it helped direct patients to the right service first time. They were confident using video for a broad range of presenting conditions. They felt it created additional trust and rapport with patients and was useful for bringing third parties into the consultation. They felt that it allowed them to maximise resources and use shielded colleagues effectively. They emphasised the importance of one-to one training and this was seen as vital for effective implementation within an organisation. Conclusion: Video consulting is useful in the urgent care setting as an adjunct to telephone consulting. It is particularly helpful in the initial triage of patients. One-to-one training is needed for effective implementation.
Developing user personas to capture intersecting dimensions of disadvantage in older patients who are marginalised: a qualitative study.
BACKGROUND: Remote and digital services must be equitable, but some patients have difficulty using these services. Designing measures to overcome digital disparities can be challenging for practices. Personas (fictional cases) are a potentially useful tool in this regard. AIM: To develop and test a set of personas to reflect the lived experiences and challenges that older people who are disadvantaged face when navigating remote and digital primary care services. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study of digital disparities in NHS community health services offering video appointments. METHOD: Following familiarisation visits and interviews with service providers, 17 older people with multiple markers of disadvantage (limited English, health conditions, and poverty) were recruited and interviewed using narrative prompts. Data were analysed using an intersectionality lens, underpinned by sociological theory. Combining data across all participant interviews, we produced personas and refined these following focus groups involving health professionals, patients, and advocates (n = 12). RESULTS: Digital services create significant challenges for older patients with limited economic, social, and linguistic resources and low digital, health, or system literacy. Four contrasting personas were produced, capturing the variety and complexity of how dimensions of disadvantage intersected and influenced identity and actions. The personas illustrate important themes including experience of racism and discrimination, disorientation, discontinuity, limited presence, weak relationships, loss of agency, and mistrust of services and providers. CONCLUSION: Personas can illuminate the multiple and intersecting dimensions of disadvantage in patient populations who are marginalised and may prove useful when designing or redesigning digital primary care services. Adopting an intersectional lens may help practices address digital disparities.
Penicillin allergy status and its effect on antibiotic prescribing, patient outcomes and antimicrobial resistance (ALABAMA): protocol for a multicentre, parallel-arm, open-label, randomised pragmatic trial
Introduction Incorrect penicillin allergy records are recognised as an important barrier to the safe treatment of infection and affect an estimated 2.7 million people in England. Penicillin allergy records are associated with worse health outcome and antimicrobial resistance. The ALlergy AntiBiotics And Microbial resistAnce (ALABAMA) trial aims to determine if an intervention package, centred around a penicillin allergy assessment pathway (PAAP) initiated in primary care, is safe and effective in improving patient health outcomes and antibiotic prescribing. Methods and analysis The ALABAMA trial is a multicentre, parallel-arm, open-label, randomised pragmatic trial with a nested pilot study. Adults (≥18 years) with a penicillin allergy record and who have received antibiotics in the previous 24 months will be eligible for participation. Between 1592 and 2090 participants will be recruited from participating National Health Service general practices in England. Participants will be randomised to either usual care or intervention to undergo a pre-emptive PAAP using a 1:1 allocation ratio. The primary outcome measure is the percentage of treatment response failures within 28 days of an index prescription. 2090 and 1592 participants are estimated to provide 90% and 80% power, respectively, to detect a clinically important absolute difference of 7.9% in primary outcome at 1 year between groups. The trial includes a mixed-methods process evaluation and cost-effectiveness evaluation. Ethics and dissemination This trial has been approved by London Bridge Research Ethics Committee (ref: 19/LO/0176). It will be conducted in compliance with Good Clinical Practice guidelines according to the Declaration of Helsinki. Informed consent will be obtained from all subjects involved in the study. The primary trial results will be submitted for publication to an international, peer-reviewed journal. Trial registration ISRCTN20579216.
Gender, marginalised groups, and young people's mental health: a longitudinal analysis of trajectories.
BACKGROUND: Individuals from marginalised groups experience higher levels of mental health difficulties and lower levels of wellbeing which may be due to the exposure to stress and adversity. This study explores trajectories of mental health over time for young women and girls and young people with other marginalised identities. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis on N = 14,215 children and young people (7,501 or 52.8% female, 6,571 or 46.2% male, and 81 or 0.6% non-binary or questioning) who completed a survey at age 11 to 12 years and at least one other annual survey aged 12 to 13 years and/or aged 13 to 14 years. We used group-based trajectory models to examine mental health difficulties. RESULTS: Except for behavioural difficulties, young women's and girls' trajectories showed that they consistently had higher levels of mental health difficulties compared to young men and boys. A similar pattern was shown for non-binary and questioning children and young people. Children and young people with economic disadvantage and/or special education needs, and/or for whom there were welfare concerns, were generally more likely to experience higher levels of mental health difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: This information could inform public policy, guidance and interventions.
Patient-planetary health co-benefit prescribing in a circumpolar health region: a qualitative study of physician voices from the Northwest Territories, Canada.
BACKGROUND: Despite climate change being described as a code red for humanity, health systems have been particularly slow in both climate mitigation and adaptation responses. The effects of climate change on health and health systems will not be felt equally, with underserved and marginalised communities disproportionately impacted. The circumpolar region is warming at 3-4 times the global rate, amplifying already existing socioeconomic barriers and health inequities, with particular amplified effects for the substantial Indigenous population in the area. OBJECTIVES AND SETTING: We therefore sought to explore perspectives of physicians around patient-planetary health (P-PH) co-benefit prescribing in a circumpolar region in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, known to be one of the ground zero levels for climate change. METHODS: Thirteen semi-structured physician interviews were carried out in the NWT region between May 2022 and March 2023 using purposive sampling. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and reflexive thematic analysis was carried out to identify key themes. RESULTS: There were three main themes identified including (1) current healthcare system does not support planetary health, (2) supporting patient-planetary health is currently difficult for clinicians and (3) considering change in the NWT to support patient-planetary health. Participants noted key opportunities to move planetary health forward, with the NWT having the potential to be an innovative model for planetary health-informed change for other health systems. CONCLUSION: The NWT health system has unique features due to its rural and remote nature and smaller population base. Despite this, our study identified some key opportunities for advancing P-PH co-benefit efforts. The identified opportunities may be considered in future intervention, organisational change and policy-making efforts with potential relevance in other settings.