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Healthcare advancements are driven by research and healthcare settings play a crucial role in this process by recruiting patients to take part. There's growing evidence that research-active hospitals show better patient outcomes, but the impact of research activity in primary care settings has been explored in as much detail. Here, Sophie Park, our Professor of Primary Care and Clinical Education discusses recent research she conducted with colleagues across the UK to examine the benefits of taking part in research for primary care practices.
The experiences and needs of supporting individuals of young people who self-harm: A systematic review and thematic synthesis
Self-harm in young people is a serious international health concern that impacts on those providing informal support: the supporting individuals of young people. We aimed to highlight the experiences, views, and needs of these supporting individuals of young people. We conducted a systematic review and thematic synthesis: PROSPERO CRD42020168527. MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE, AMED, CINAHL, ASSIA, and Web of Science were searched from inception to 6 May 2020 with citation tracking of eligible studies done on 1 Oct 2021. Primary outcomes were experiences, perspectives, and needs of parents, carers, or other family members of young people aged 12–25. Searches found 6167 citations, of which 22 papers were included in synthesis. Supporting individuals seek an explanation for and were personally affected by self-harm in young people. It is important that these individuals are themselves supported, especially as they negotiate new identities when handling self-harm in young people, as they attempt to offer support. The GRADE-CERQual confidence in findings is moderate. Recommendations informed by the synthesis findings are made for the future development of interventions. Clinicians and health service providers who manage self-harm in young people should incorporate these identified unmet needs of supporting individuals in a holistic approach to self-harm care. Future research must co-produce and evaluate interventions for supporting individuals. Funding: FM was supported by a NIHR School for Primary Care Research GP Career Progression Fellowship (SCPR-157 2020–20) to undertake this review and is now funded by a NIHR Doctoral Fellowship (NIHR300957). CCG is part-funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West Midlands.
Assessment and management of medical emergencies in eating disorders: Guidance for GPs
Eating disorders are common, affect people of all ages, and can present as medical emergencies in community, primary care, or hospital settings. In 2017, in response to the death of a 19-year-old female with anorexia nervosa, the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman produced a report entitled Ignoring the Alarms: How NHS Eating Disorder Services are Failing Patients.1 In 2019, the Royal College of Psychiatrists began work to update existing eating disorder guidance (MARSIPAN and Junior MARSIPAN) alongside expert reference groups guided by the National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health; this resulted in the new Medical Emergencies in Eating Disorders [MEED]: Guidance on Recognition and Management report.2 This new guidance is intended for people of all ages covering all eating disorders. This practice piece consolidates the key recommendations for GPs and primary care teams.
Assessment and management of allergic rhinitis: A review and evidence-informed approach for family medicine
Allergic rhinitis is an inflammatory disorder affecting nasal mucosa in response to allergen exposure and is commonly assessed and managed in family medicine. In this article, we review new international guidelines on the diagnosis and management of allergic rhinitis and generate evidence-informed recommendations for family medicine doctors.
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Characteristics of individuals from ethnic minority backgrounds who die by suicide: A systematic review and meta-analysis
We aimed to estimate the prevalence of clinical and modifiable sociodemographic characteristics of individuals from ethnic minority backgrounds who died by suicide and, where possible, compare them to the majority population. Databases were searched for studies published between 01/01/2000–19/12/2023. Absolute and relative prevalence estimates of characteristics were reported by minority group (Indigenous; migrant; other ethnic minority) then stratified by continent and, where applicable, migrant sub-type and ethnicity. A narrative synthesis was conducted with moderate-high quality studies. We identified fifty-seven studies across 16 countries; the majority from North America, Europe and Oceania. When examining moderate-high quality evidence, there were generally limited numbers of studies reporting the prevalence of each characteristic by ethnic minority status, especially for social factors. Based on the available data, we found a high prevalence mental health problems among people who died by suicide from Indigenous (20.8–60.7 %), migrant (37.2–42.9 %) and other ethnic minority (29.9–37.3 %) backgrounds. However, people from Asian/Pacific Islander, Black and Hispanic backgrounds were less likely to have mental health problems reported compared to majority populations. Indigenous people and migrants generally had lower contact with mental health services compared to majority groups. We also found evidence of a lower prevalence of depression and higher prevalence of alcohol and substance use problems among Indigenous compared to non-Indigenous individuals, and greater levels of economic disadvantage among migrants compared to non-migrants. Our findings highlight differences in the characteristics of people who die by suicide based on ethnicity and migration status and identify potential targets for research and suicide prevention strategies.
Wish to die and healthcare use in older people: cross-sectional findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).
AIM: To examine the relationship between wish to die (WTD) and healthcare use in primary and secondary care among older adults living in Ireland. SUBJECT AND METHODS: Secondary analysis of a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling older adults from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). Primary outcomes were self-reported general practitioner (GP) and emergency department (ED) visits in the last 12 months. Negative binomial regression was used to examine the associations between WTD and healthcare use. RESULTS: Out of 8174 individuals aged 50 and older, a total of 8149 provided information relating to WTD at wave 1. Of these, 279 (3.4%) individuals disclosed a WTD, while 7870 did not. The mean number of self-reported GP visits in the last 12 months was 4.81 (standard error [SE] = 0.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.25-5.37) for those disclosing a WTD (n = 261), while it was 3.59 (SE = 0.04, 95% CI 3.51-3.67) for those without a WTD (n = 7791). WTD was associated with a higher number of GP visits (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.03, p = 0.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06). After adjusting for relevant covariates, associations between WTD and ED visits were not observed. Female gender, lower education levels, living alone, depressive and anxiety symptoms, chronic health conditions, severe chronic pain, problematic alcohol consumption, smoking, falls, disability, and regular medication use showed significant associations with WTD. Limitations of the study include the presentation of cross-sectional results; thus we do not make causal inferences or conclusions on the directionality/trajectory of WTD and healthcare use. CONCLUSION: Older adults reporting WTD presented to GPs approximately five times within the previous 12 months. While effect sizes were small, these findings may help inform health services. Future research can further examine potential longitudinal associations and whether GP and ED attendance patterns change over time.
Psychosocial interventions for self-harm and suicide prevention in liaison psychiatry: an overview of systematic reviews
Background: Liaison psychiatry services play a central role in self-harm care and suicide prevention by providing specialist mental health input in general hospitals. Psychosocial interventions, including brief contact approaches (e.g., safety plans) and longer-term structured therapies (e.g., cognitive-behaviour therapy [CBT], dialectical behaviour therapy [CBT]), may reduce self-harm and suicide risk but their relevance and effectiveness within liaison psychiatry settings remains unclear. Aims: To synthesise systematic evidence review on psychosocial interventions for preventing self-harm and suicide in liaison psychiatry settings through an umbrella review. Methods: We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and CDSR (2013–2023) for systematic reviews evaluating interventions in liaison psychiatry contexts (including emergency departments, wards in general hospitals, outpatient/follow-up clinics for acute care patients receiving treatment for self-harm/suicidal behaviour), in adults or mixed adult/adolescent populations. Review quality (AMSTAR-2), primary study overlap in reviews, and evidence certainty (adapted GRADE) were assessed. Findings were narratively synthesised and tabulated, with input from experts-by-experience throughout. PROSPERO: CRD42023442639. Results: Twenty-three systematic reviews (including 12 meta-analyses; >450,000 participants), were included. Person-centred brief contact interventions, particularly those incorporating safety planning and follow-up, were most consistently associated with reduced suicide attempt rates. However, methodological limitations including heterogeneity, limited generalisability, lack of self-harm specific outcomes, and mixed findings for remote only contact interventions warrant cautious interpretation. For longer-term psychological therapies, CBT was associated with reduced repeat self-harm, particularly with longer follow-up, whereas DBT reduced the rate of repetition. Evidence was limited by the lack of setting-specific trials, limited patient involvement, and suboptimal quality trials. Review quality varied. Primary trial overlap was slight overall, but high for some pairs of reviews of brief interventions. Conclusion: Current evidence for self-harm and suicide prevention interventions in liaison psychiatry services is methodologically suboptimal. Given widescale implementation of psychosocial interventions, there is an urgent priority to ensure they are safe, effective, and acceptable within liaison psychiatry services.
Nasal septal perforation in pregnancy case report: A family medicine perspective.
A pregnant woman in her early 30s presented to her family medicine doctor with a nasal septal perforation and a history of past cocaine use. This case required careful evaluation to distinguish between potential causes, including autoimmune vasculitis and drug-induced damage. Management was tailored to her pregnancy, emphasizing conservative nasal care and multidisciplinary support. With cessation of cocaine use and supportive treatment, the patient's nasal condition stabilized. This case highlights the diagnostic complexity of septal perforations and reinforces the importance of identifying cocaine-induced pathology, which in this case avoided unnecessary immunosuppression.
Trends of musculoskeletal pain in children and young people consulting primary care: an electronic primary health care record study.
BACKGROUND: Pain in childhood is common, but there is an information gap on initial care seeking. Our aim was to determine trends and variations in the consultation prevalence and incidence of musculoskeletal pain, and most common sites of pain, in children and young people presenting to UK primary care. METHODS: A national UK primary care database (CPRD Aurum) was used to determine annual prevalence and incidence of consultation for musculoskeletal pain in children and young people (aged 8–18 years) between 2005 and 2021. Incidence was defined as no musculoskeletal consultation in the previous 12 months. Rates were calculated per 10,000 registered population for each calendar year and by age, gender, and body site. RESULTS: 1,175,641 children and young people (49% female; median age 12) consulted primary care for musculoskeletal pain. Annual consultation prevalence for musculoskeletal pain rose from 808/10,000 in 2005 to 980/10,000 in 2011, then remained stable to 2015 before falling slightly. Annual consultation rates were higher for younger and older females, although minimal differences were observed between genders for 12–15-year-olds. Foot/ankle was the most common pain site in younger children. Back pain was the most recorded pain site for females from age 16. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides contemporary data on how common consultations for musculoskeletal pain are in children and young people using nationally representative primary care electronic health records. It demonstrates that musculoskeletal pain is common in children and young people with nearly one in ten seeking primary health care each year, with different patterns by age, gender and body site. Understanding the epidemiology of musculoskeletal pain in children and young people presenting to primary care is key due to paucity of information on how to effectively care for this population and highlights a need to ensure that service provision is adapted accordingly. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-025-06296-y.
Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics—including life expectancy and age-specific mortality—are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of timely and all-cause mortality estimates for being able to respond to changing trends in health outcomes, showing a strong need for demographic analysis tools that can produce all-cause mortality estimates more rapidly with more readily available all-age vital registration (VR) data. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is an ongoing research effort that quantifies human health by estimating a range of epidemiological quantities of interest across time, age, sex, location, cause, and risk. This study—part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023—aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time. We used 24 025 data sources from VR, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources to estimate all-cause mortality for males, females, and all sexes combined across 25 age groups in 204 countries and territories as well as 660 subnational units in 20 countries and territories, for the years 1950–2023. For the first time, we used complete birth history data for ages 5–14 years, age-specific sibling history data for ages 15–49 years, and age-specific mortality data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. We developed a single statistical model that incorporates both parametric and non-parametric methods, referred to as OneMod, to produce estimates of all-cause mortality for each age-sex-location group. OneMod includes two main steps: a detailed regression analysis with a generalised linear modelling tool that accounts for age-specific covariate effects such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a population attributable fraction (PAF) for all risk factors combined; and a non-parametric analysis of residuals using a multivariate kernel regression model that smooths across age and time to adaptably follow trends in the data without overfitting. We calibrated asymptotic uncertainty estimates using Pearson residuals to produce 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) and corresponding 1000 draws. Life expectancy was calculated from age-specific mortality rates with standard demographic methods. For each measure, 95% UIs were calculated with the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. In 2023, 60·1 million (95% UI 59·0–61·1) deaths occurred globally, of which 4·67 million (4·59–4·75) were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35·2% (32·2–38·4) over the 1950–2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66·6% (65·8–67·3). Trends in age-specific mortality rates between 2011 and 2023 varied by age group and location, with the largest decline in under-5 mortality occurring in east Asia (67·7% decrease); the largest increases in mortality for those aged 5–14 years, 25–29 years, and 30–39 years occurring in high-income North America (11·5%, 31·7%, and 49·9%, respectively); and the largest increases in mortality for those aged 15–19 years and 20–24 years occurring in Eastern Europe (53·9% and 40·1%, respectively). We also identified higher than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 5–14 years (87·3% higher in GBD 2023 than GBD 2021 on average across countries and territories over the 1950–2021 period) and for females aged 15–29 years (61·2% higher), as well as lower than previously estimated mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa for all sexes combined aged 50 years and older (13·2% lower), reflecting advances in our modelling approach. Global life expectancy followed three distinct trends over the study period. First, between 1950 and 2019, there were considerable improvements, from 51·2 (50·6–51·7) years for females and 47·9 (47·4–48·4) years for males in 1950 to 76·3 (76·2–76·4) years for females and 71·4 (71·3–71·5) years for males in 2019. Second, this period was followed by a decrease in life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic, to 74·7 (74·6–74·8) years for females and 69·3 (69·2–69·4) years for males in 2021. Finally, the world experienced a period of post-pandemic recovery in 2022 and 2023, wherein life expectancy generally returned to pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2023 (76·3 [76·0–76·6] years for females and 71·5 [71·2–71·8] years for males). 194 (95·1%) of 204 countries and territories experienced at least partial post-pandemic recovery in age-standardised mortality rates by 2023, with 61·8% (126 of 204) recovering to or falling below pre-pandemic levels. There were several mortality trajectories during and following the pandemic across countries and territories. Long-term mortality trends also varied considerably between age groups and locations, demonstrating the diverse landscape of health outcomes globally. This analysis identified several key differences in mortality trends from previous estimates, including higher rates of adolescent mortality, higher rates of young adult mortality in females, and lower rates of mortality in older age groups in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The findings also highlight stark differences across countries and territories in the timing and scale of changes in all-cause mortality trends during and following the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–23). Our estimates of evolving trends in mortality and life expectancy across locations, ages, sexes, and SDI levels in recent years as well as over the entire 1950–2023 study period provide crucial information for governments, policy makers, and the public to ensure that health-care systems, economies, and societies are prepared to address the world's health needs, particularly in populations with higher rates of mortality than previously known. The estimates from this study provide a robust framework for GBD and a valuable foundation for policy development, implementation, and evaluation around the world. Gates Foundation.
Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Background Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. Methods GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6–47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1–63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1–45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7–61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1–48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5–66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9–81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8–74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5–38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2–35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. Interpretation We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting—with enhanced estimation methods—the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. Funding Gates Foundation.
Mortality in adolescents after therapeutic intervention for self-harm: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
BACKGROUND: Self-harm in adolescents is an international concern. Evidence highlights that therapeutic intervention (TI), such as cognitive behaviour therapy informed treatments, after self-harm leads to reduced self-harm repetition. However, there is no prior literature about the effects of TI on future mortality in adolescents. We examined the effect of TI on mortality rates in adolescents across RCTs. METHODS: This review was reported in accordance with PRISMA guidance. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and Cochrane Library were searched to 19 June 2024. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts against pre-defined criteria. RCTs were included if they compared a TI versus a comparator in adolescents up to 18 years with at least one prior self-harm episode. There was no lower age limit. For the pooled effect size of mortality, the DerSimonian-Laird method was used, and a random effects model for self-harm and suicide attempts. The primary outcome was intra or post-trial mortality in adolescent post TI, and the effect of TIs on self-harm including attempted suicide episodes were secondary outcomes. Analyses were done in Stata. RESULTS: Twenty-four trials of TIs consisting of 3470 randomised adolescents were included. The pooled risk difference for mortality of participants in the TI group was 0.002 (95% CI -0.003 to 0.008, p = 0.42). There were 6 deaths in the TI group compared to 15 deaths in the comparator group. The pooled risk difference for TI on repeat self-harm was -0.07 (95% CI -0.132 to -0.007, p = 0.028), and -0.05 (95% CI -0.086 to -0.007, p = 0.022) for suicide attempts compared to comparator. CONCLUSIONS: This review found no significant impact of TIs on future mortality in adolescents. We also demonstrated that TIs can reduce suicide attempts which can lead to substantial benefits for adolescents, families, and clinical services.