World Bank: Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessments

We’re supporting the World Bank’s Climate & Health team by contributing senior health systems and health economics expertise, drawing on colleagues across our Department. Luke Allen co-led development of the Bank’s Primary Health Care-oriented Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment (CHVA) approach, which is now being deployed in Comoros, Timor-Leste, Tunisia and a range of other LMICs. In addition, we contribute to the World Bank’s climate-health agenda through advisory roles in COP30 and COP31 on high-impact interventions at the nexus of climate and health.

The Problem

Climate change is a multiplier of health risks, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and threatens to reverse gains in health and poverty reduction. The health sector is often ill-prepared for climate stressors such as extreme heat, vector shifts, and extreme weather events. Yet many diagnostic tools and adaptation plans do not adequately account for the role of primary health care systems, local service capacity, or the equity implications of climate shocks. Without tailored, system-level vulnerability assessments, investments risk being misaligned or inequitable.

Approach

We help the Bank and local country teams to design and execute CHVAs with a PHC lens. This involves mapping climate-sensitive health impacts, assessing system vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity, and modelling scenarios of resilience interventions. We bring to bear health systems modelling, cost and financing analysis, and governance considerations. Across COP30 and COP31, we are advising on the selection of high-impact interventions deliver the greatest health return under climate stress, helping operationalise policy into climate finance portfolios.

Impact

The ambition is that PHC-centred CHVAs will help countries better anticipate climate health risks, design adaptive health systems, and target scarce resources to where they are most needed. As these assessments inform investment decisions at national and global levels, they should shift funding toward resilience in frontline care, not just “back end” infrastructure. Over time, integrating climate-health planning into PHC systems may reduce climate-driven health losses, improve equity in health outcomes, and strengthen the sustainability of UHC in a warming world.