Predictive mathematical models and health economic evaluation have a vital role to play in the advice received from JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation) about changes to the UK’s vaccination policy. Given the prominence of JCVI, this advice often influences worldwide policy through National Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs). It is therefore vital that JCVI is provided with the best quantitative assessments for any decision.

Following the advice of the Macpherson review, we believe it is important that JCVI has at least two sets of predictions, to increase its confidence in modelling results. Our research has been instrumental in providing additional independent predictions and enabling JCVI to follow this acknowledged best practice.

This project will build upon our experience of the past five years within the MEMVIE programme in offering the type of health economic predictions that JCVI needs to provide policy advice and recommendations. These predictions are based on the results of (often) complex mathematical models that have been carefully matched to a range of epidemiological and demographic data, and predict the health changes and associated health and broader costs associated with any change to the vaccine schedule.

Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) is a fundamental part of our programme, building on our expertise in developing a framework for linking complex mathematical prediction with PPI, in a manner that is highly informative.